Macro

China generated 49.7% of its electricity from coal in the six months to June, marking the first time the share has fallen below 50%. Renewable energy rose to 41.2% over the same period, the first time it exceeded 40%. Wind and solar together accounted for 24.6% of total generation, officials said.

Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government will temporarily cut the consumption tax on food and beverages from 8% to 1% for two years starting next April. The move would reduce annual revenue by about ¥5 trillion ($30.6 billion). To keep its pledge of a net-zero overall consumption tax reduction, the government plans a benefits program that would provide ¥600 billion a year to families in need.

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, but a 9-3 split highlighted internal divisions. Risk appetite cooled sharply after President Donald Trump warned of heightened geopolitical risks and investors worried the conflict could drag on. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,153.18 points (2.19%) in its biggest one-day drop since April 2025, while Brent crude surged 7.9% to $90.74 a barrel and WTI rose 6.6% to $84.46.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three regional Fed bank presidents dissented and called for a 25-basis-point increase. It was the first time since 2016 that three officials cast unified dissents in the same direction at a single meeting. Markets treated the split as a sign of a firmer tilt toward tightening, triggering swings in risk-asset prices.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 2:10pm, but its post-meeting statement struck a hawkish tone that lifted expectations for further rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 1,153 points (2.2%), while the S&P 500 fell 113 points (1.5%) and the Nasdaq dropped 434 points (1.7%). The 30-year US Treasury yield moved above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007.

US long-dated Treasury yields jumped after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, with 30-year and 10-year yields rising sharply. Stocks sold off at the same time, with the S&P 500 down 1.5%, the Nasdaq 100 down 2.1% and in a technical correction, and the Dow down 2.2%. Brent crude climbed above $90 a barrel. The moves were driven by a shift in expectations around the macro policy outlook.

India has approved a Rs 41,534 crore subsidy for phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilisers for the 202526 Kharif season, up 12% from the year-ago period, as raw material costs surged by 100%–200% and some inputs rose 3 to 4 times. The government also set per-kg nutrient subsidy rates for nitrogen, phosphate, potash and sulphur. Total fertiliser production stood at 517.49 lakh tonnes during 202526, while urea imports rose 83% to 103.50 lakh tonnes, according to government data.

The Canadian federal government said it will invest C$1.957 billion to replace 45 aging Via Rail locomotives and build new assembly and maintenance facilities. Of that, C$1.6 billion is earmarked for new locomotives—nine to be made in Spain and 36 to be assembled in Canada—and C$357 million for the plant. The move aims to address Via Rail’s long-running on-time performance issues, which fell to 30% in the first quarter of 2025, with the new trains expected to enter service by 2031.

India curtailed about 8 billion kilowatthours of solar power from April to June 2024 as its grid struggled to absorb generation during a heat-driven surge in electricity use. The curtailment rate was 11%, while 63 billion kilowatthours of solar power was delivered to the grid over the same period. The constraint highlights bottlenecks in clean-energy infrastructure that could weigh on renewable project returns and complicate India’s 2030 goal of 500 gigawatts of clean power capacity.

ANZ lifted its Working Capital Base Rate by 25 basis points to 11.00%. Mortgage interest paid in Q22026 fell 11.1% year on year to NZ$4.8 bln from NZ$5.4 bln. Dairy auction prices slipped by a little more than 1% week on week in USD. Together, the signals point to weaker fundamentals for NZDUSD.