Geopolitics

Woolworths Holdings expects full-year headline earnings per share to rise 2.5%–7.5%, a marked slowdown from prior years, as the Middle East conflict lifts fuel costs and inflation while higher interest rates curb consumer spending. The group reported full-year sales growth of 4.3%, but growth eased to 3.3% in the second half. Its fashion and home business saw margins pressured by promotions and inventory clearance, while Australia and New Zealand unit Country Road recorded a 0.5% dip in second-half sales, according to Reuters.

Shell said first-half underlying earnings rose 70% year on year to $16.75 billion (£12.55 billion), far ahead of expectations. The company attributed the sharp increase to heavy volatility in oil markets triggered by the Iran war, which boosted results in its oil trading business. The move underscores how geopolitical conflict can disrupt crude spot and trading markets, according to the company’s statement.

Ukraine has carried out long-range drone strikes on at least 10 logistics sites operated by Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, destroying more than 9% of its warehouse space and large volumes of stored goods. Forbes Russia estimated that two attacks alone caused merchants at least $1.87 billion in merchandise losses. Wildberries’ parent group RWB reported about $73 billion in gross merchandise value last year and posted a net profit of $2.1 billion in 2025. The strikes represent tactical infrastructure attacks linked to the war and do not target global-market pillars such as energy, finance or shipping, nor do they have a direct transmission channel to the listed tradfi assets (SUS, Amazon, ONUS, COST, BE).

Leidos has received a $717 million task order from the U.S. Air Force’s Air Combat Command to continue intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) support services it has provided since 2019. The contract includes a one-year base period and four option years. Work will span 35 locations in the United States and overseas, with Leidos personnel embedded alongside Air Force units to deliver intelligence analysis, threat mitigation, training and mission support.

The US District Court for the District of Columbia on 24 July enforced an International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) award worth about $270 million against Zimbabwe. The ruling backed members of the von Pezold family and affiliated companies in a case tied to Zimbabwe’s early-2000s land reform programme that expropriated their farming, forestry and timber assets without compensation. The claimants launched the US enforcement action in 2021, and the judgment confirms the award’s recognition and enforcement within the US court system.

Recent fighting between the United States and Iran has cut US stockpiles of Patriot and THAAD high-altitude missile interceptors by more than 65%, leaving an estimated 759–827 rounds in inventory. The Pentagon has asked Congress for USD 67 billion in emergency funding to restock costly munitions and bolster defence capabilities. The drawdown reflects how geopolitical conflict can rapidly consume precision weapons and trigger follow-on procurement, with implications for defence contractors’ supply chains and expected orders.

The US said it intercepted an Iranian “surprise attack” on its troops and retaliated militarily, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions. Brent crude jumped more than 4% to above $88 a barrel. South Korea’s benchmark stock index posted a record two-day plunge of 22%, while SK Hynix fell 17% after a 557% quarterly profit surge still missed expectations and Samsung Electronics slid 12%. Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.9%.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) Group reported a net loss of S$76 million in the first quarter of FY2026, swinging from a S$186 million profit a year earlier. Net fuel costs rose S$991 million year on year to S$2,253 million due to the Middle East conflict, while its share of losses from Air India increased by S$42 million. The group posted record revenue in the quarter, but the rise in expenditure significantly eroded profitability.

Shares in Britain’s Games Workshop fell as much as 6.5% after the company warned that volatility in global energy markets linked to the Iran war could lift plastic raw-material costs by about £2 million. It also said U.S. tariffs are expected to add an annualised cost of around £13 million. While the Warhammer maker plans to offset part of the impact through price increases and operational changes, the cost pressures overshadowed its record annual profit.

The escalating war in Iran is stoking concerns over Europe’s gas supply security ahead of winter. European spot gas prices jumped nearly 26% in a week as storage levels sit just above 50%, well below the late-July historical norm. Even in a best-case scenario, Europe’s storage would reach only 75% by November, far short of the 90% policy target. Northwestern Europe, including Germany and the Netherlands, faces the sharpest risk of winter supply gaps.