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Free Press Journal

India sugar output seen slipping to 29 million-31 million tonnes in 2026-27 as El Niño threatens harvest

AI Market Summary
Bloomberg survey suggests India's 2026-27 sugar output may fall to 29–31mt as El Niño-linked dryness and a ~15% monsoon shortfall threaten cane yields, tightening supply for a key producer/consumer. Potential imports of 2–3mt and a projected global deficit increase focus on inventory policy and trade flows. With NY raw sugar futures already up ~30% YTD, near-term pricing remains sensitive to crop updates and India's import/export decisions.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOSUGAR2USD/USDT-1.21%
AI Insight · NCCOSUGAR2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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A Bloomberg survey shows India’s sugar production in the 2026-27 season is expected to fall to 29 million tonnes to 31 million tonnes, below 31 million tonnes projected for the current season, as El Niño-linked dryness threatens the crop. Monsoon rainfall is running about 15% below normal, raising risks for sugarcane. To shore up inventories, India may need to import 2 million tonnes to 3 million tonnes of sugar. Raw sugar futures in New York have risen nearly 30% this year.
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