Citi sees Brent sliding to $60 a barrel by year-end as Hormuz shipping normalizes
AI Market Summary
Citi argues Brent could fall toward $60-$65 by year-end as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes and a potential U.S.-Iran deal reduces geopolitical risk premia. Weak China crude demand, a surge in Middle East prompt supply, and smaller-than-expected inventory draws reinforce a shift toward oversupply. Goldman and Morgan Stanley echo a 2025 glut narrative, increasing downside sensitivity to improving flows and stock rebuild dynamics.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDT+4.94%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Citigroup forecasts Brent crude could fall to $60 per barrel by the end of the year as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal and the U.S. and Iran are expected to reach a deal in the coming months. It also points to weak Chinese crude imports and a surge in prompt Middle East spot supply that has pressured physical prices. Citi said global inventory draws have been far smaller than expected, signaling a near-term shift toward an oversupplied market structure.
