UPDATE: Polymarket traders price in 79% odds the Fed holds rates steady in 2026

Polymarket pricing implies traders assign a 79% probability that the Fed will not cut rates this year, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate narrative. That typically tightens financial conditions, supports real yields and the USD, and can weigh on risk assets. For crypto, persistent restrictive policy expectations are generally a headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets, potentially dampening near-term risk appetite and volatility positioning.