Polymarket pricing implies 79% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike in September

Polymarket pricing implying a 79% probability of a 25 bp Fed hike in September signals more restrictive policy expectations and higher front-end rate risk. That typically tightens financial conditions, supports the dollar, and pressures risk assets via higher discount rates and reduced liquidity appetite. Crypto, as a high-beta liquidity-sensitive market, may see near-term volatility and weaker positioning if this probability persists.