Goldman Sachs: Crypto trading volumes extend 10-month slide as a potential turning point nears

A Goldman Sachs report dated August 24, 2026, cited by Chaoxiang Research, said crypto trading volume fell 30% in July and 21% in August, extending declines to ten straight months—longer than the median length of the prior five downturn cycles. Volume is down 75% from its peak, even as total crypto market capitalization rebounded 21% over the past week. Goldman Sachs said a volume inflection could take shape if market capitalization holds around current levels. Regulation remains the dominant swing factor for institutions: 35% of institutional investors surveyed pointed to regulatory uncertainty as the biggest hurdle, while 32% said regulatory clarity would be the key catalyst. The SEC recently floated a novel exemption framework. Separately, more than ten new digital asset companies received OCC banking charters in 2026, and more than fifteen crypto firms are now integrated into the federal banking system. On fundamentals, crypto companies cut average fees by about 5% in 2026, lifting operating profit margins by roughly 5.8 percentage points. Goldman Sachs kept a cautiously optimistic view for the second half of the year, noting sector valuations sit at the 30th percentile of their five-year range. The firm’s recommended names include Coinbase (COIN, target price: $196), Robinhood (HOOD, $124), Interactive Brokers (IBKR, $114—on the Goldman Sachs U.S. Conviction List), and FIGR (target price: $43). Goldman Sachs grouped the thesis into three buckets: traditional brokerages tied to expectations for a September reversal, predictive markets shaped by election cycles, and crypto equities supported by three catalysts—a market-cap rebound, cost reductions, and regulatory reform.