Goldman Sachs: Crypto trading volumes slide for 10 straight months as a potential turning point nears
AI Market Summary
Goldman Sachs highlights a 10-month slump in crypto trading volumes (down ~75% from peak), despite a recent rebound in crypto market cap, implying liquidity and participation remain weak. The bank argues volumes could inflect if market cap holds, while regulatory developments (SEC exemption framework, potential OCC charters) may improve institutional engagement. Sector valuations near the 30th percentile suggest muted expectations, supporting a cautiously optimistic 2H backdrop.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
BTC/USDT+2.30%
AI Insight · BTC/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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ME News reported on Aug. 25 (UTC+8) that Chaoxiang Research, citing a Goldman Sachs report, said crypto trading volumes fell 30% in July and 21% in August, extending the downturn to ten consecutive months—longer than the median length of the past five cycles. Trading activity is down 75% from its peak, even as total crypto market capitalization has rebounded 21% over the past week.
Goldman Sachs said that if market capitalization holds around current levels, trading volumes could be nearing an inflection point.
Regulation remains a central issue for institutions. The report found 35% of institutional investors view regulatory uncertainty as the biggest hurdle, while 32% see regulatory clarity as the main catalyst. The SEC has recently proposed an innovative exemption framework. In addition, more than 10 digital asset companies are expected to obtain OCC banking charters by 2026, and over 15 crypto firms have already been integrated into the federal banking system.
Goldman Sachs forecasts crypto companies could cut average fees by about 5% in 2026, which would lift operating profit margins by roughly 5.8 percentage points.
The bank kept a cautiously optimistic view for the second half of the year, noting sector valuations sit at the 30th percentile of their five-year range. Goldman Sachs' recommended picks include Coinbase (COIN, target price: $196), Robinhood (HOOD, $124), Interactive Brokers (IBKR, $114; on Goldman Sachs' U.S. Conviction List), and FIGR ($43).
Goldman Sachs differentiated its investment case across three themes: traditional brokerages tied to the prospect of a September reversal, prediction markets influenced by the election cycle, and crypto-related equities supported by three drivers—market-cap recovery, cost reductions, and regulatory reform. (Source: ChainCatcher)
