Gold climbs after soft June jobs report cools July Fed hike odds

Gold rallied after a weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report eased expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase. Spot gold rose to $4,174.61 per ounce, up 1.19% from the prior day. June payrolls increased by 57,000, well below the 110,000 consensus forecast. In response, market-implied odds of a Fed hike at the July meeting fell sharply to below 20%. The shift in rate expectations helped gold reestablish support above the $4,100 level. Key points - The move in gold aligns with softer rate-hike expectations following the weak NFP print. - Traders are now pricing a much lower probability of a July increase. - Rate-cut timing implied by market pricing shows firmer support for the possibility of easing at later meetings in 2026. What to watch Investors are focused on upcoming inflation releases and Fed communications for confirmation on the policy path. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other officials could reset expectations. Signs of ongoing economic softness or a more dovish tilt would reinforce current pricing that favors a cut scenario, while stronger-than-expected data could revive hike expectations and weigh on gold. Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.