Galaxy Research: Bitcoin’s Latest Cycle Top Shows Little Speculation; Next Bottom Could Be Higher Than Prior Bear Markets
Galaxy Research said in a June 13 report that the latest Bitcoin cycle peak did not display the usual speculative excess, suggesting the eventual low may be less severe than in past bear markets. The firm sees a potential bottoming area between $62,000 and the network's realized price of $53,600.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, reviewed historical cycle tops and bottoms and said Bitcoin's four-year rhythm continues to track long-established timing patterns. He noted that peak-to-trough drawdowns have narrowed over time: the earliest cycles fell 85% and 84%, the 2022 cycle dropped 77%, and the 2026 cycle is down 51%.
Thorn argued that the October 2025 peak looked notably different from prior cycle tops. Only two of 11 commonly used top signals were triggered, and the closely watched Pi Cycle Top indicator failed to flash for the first time. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio peaked at 2.29, below the 2.93 to 5.91 range seen at previous cycle highs.
The report said several key bottoming signals have not yet appeared. Only four of 13 bottom indicators have triggered so far, and most of the stronger signals remain absent. Historically, cycle lows formed roughly 12 to 13 months after a peak; the current drawdown has lasted about eight months.
Using the current realized cost basis of $53,600, Galaxy's base-case estimate places the bottom in a $40,000 to $46,000 range. A deeper 'washout' scenario points to $30,000 to $37,000, while a shallower decline could keep Bitcoin near $51,000 to $54,000.
CryptoQuant data shows BTC is trading in valuation zones historically associated with major bear-market lows. Bitcoin was recently near $59,000, about 9% above the $53,600 realized price.
On the demand side, CryptoQuant reported that combined speculative futures demand and apparent spot demand fell by 652,000 BTC over the past week, the largest weekly drop since January 2022. The firm's one-year demand indicator has also turned negative, indicating fewer BTC buyers than a year ago.
