Bitcoin's rebound faces a key test as Fed releases June minutes

The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from its June 16–17 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, a release that could either reinforce Bitcoin's weeklong rebound or undermine it. Traders have largely leaned on one macro premise: a cooling U.S. labor market would limit how long the central bank can keep policy hawkish. The minutes will offer the first detailed readout of internal deliberations under Chair Kevin Warsh and show whether officials were already focused on labor-market softness in mid-June—weeks before the jobs report that helped spark the latest rally. Bitcoin was trading around $64,000 on Tuesday, nearly 11% above the 21-month low below $58,000 set on July 1. Volatility has also picked up: on Monday, the price swung more than $3,400, trading between $61,250 and $64,659. The recovery gathered momentum after Thursday's U.S. jobs report showed employers added 57,000 jobs in June, about half of what economists expected. Softer labor data prompted investors to scale back bets on another rate hike, and Bitcoin rose alongside gold and equities in what Barron's described as a repricing of U.S. rates. At the June meeting, policymakers held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, removed earlier hints that cuts could arrive soon, and shifted the median 2026 projection toward at least one additional hike. In the two weeks that followed, Bitcoin drifted lower as markets priced tighter policy for longer. The labor report changed that calculus. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised April and May payrolls down by a combined 74,000, and the unemployment rate's dip to 4.2% was driven in part by roughly 720,000 people leaving the labor force, pushing participation down to 61.5%. CME FedWatch now implies about a 76% chance the Fed holds rates at its July 28–29 meeting, with roughly 40% odds of an increase by December. What the minutes emphasize will matter. If officials were already discussing labor-market weakness, credit strain, or the risk of overtightening, the market's recent dovish pivot gains backing. If the debate focused on persistent inflation and the conditions for another hike—consistent with how Warsh framed the decision publicly—the rally risks losing its main support. With Bitcoin already pricing in meaningful relief, anything short of dovish expectations could pressure the market. Signs of fragility also show up in flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $223 million inflow on Thursday, the largest daily intake since May, snapping a 10-day stretch of outflows that totaled $2.73 billion. Even so, the funds have shed nearly $8.5 billion since early May, and institutional demand would likely need several consecutive inflow sessions before the drawdown looks like a durable re-entry signal. On-chain data adds caution. Whale-sized deposits to exchanges reached about 49,000 BTC as Bitcoin reclaimed $60,000, increasing supply available to sell into any post-minutes strength. Options positioning is also concentrated nearby, with dealer gamma clustered around $60,000 and $62,000—levels that can either stabilize price action or amplify a move, depending on direction. Technically, holding the $62,000 area after the minutes would keep the rebound intact. A push above Monday's high near $64,700 would strengthen that case. A drop back toward $58,000 would frame the jobs-driven surge as a failed rally within a bear market that began after October's $126,198 record high. Bitcoin's roughly 11% bounce has been built on assumptions about what the Fed said behind closed doors three weeks ago. Wednesday's minutes replace those assumptions with the record, and the gap between the two may set the next move.