Bitcoin price outlook: A run toward $64K could set a trap before the next leg down

Bitcoin is pressing into a key resistance band, but some analysts caution the advance looks more like a relief bounce than confirmation of a durable bottom. A failure in the $62,000–$64,000 region could turn the rebound into a bull trap, opening the door to another slide toward the low $50,000s. $64K remains the level to beat On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has moved into a dense overhead supply area. Analyst Altcoin Sherpa notes the market still appears range-bound, alternating between strong and weak sessions, with $64,000 as the main line in the sand. Resistance levels are flagged around $61,866, $62,877 and $64,755. The 200 EMA on the 4-hour timeframe sits near $64,167, reinforcing the broader $64,000 zone as a heavyweight barrier. Altcoin Sherpa says BTC could be rejected from any of these nearby levels, even though the exact turning point is not yet clear. Short-term moving averages have started to curl higher, pointing to improving momentum. Even so, Bitcoin remains below higher-timeframe resistance, keeping price action choppy and consistent with a volatile sideways range. A decisive push through the resistance stack would strengthen the bullish setup; rejection would support a near-term pullback scenario. Relief rally risk: bull trap before a move to the low $50Ks Analyst Kaz argues the current advance may be a relief rally that could still evolve into a larger bull trap before a deeper leg lower. Kaz highlights a rebound after liquidity was swept near $58,000, a downside level he had previously marked as a key target. Price is now working into higher resistance, with an initial area in the low $62,000s and an extended retest band around the mid-$63,000s to $64,000. In Kaz's view, the push higher does not confirm a bottom. After a weak monthly close, he sees a risk that traders get trapped if Bitcoin begins rejecting from these resistance zones. His chart marks two potential failure points: an "HVN + First Target" region and a higher "Extended Retest" area. A breakdown from either, he says, could send BTC back toward the low $50,000s. Kaz adds that such a reversal could rank among the cycle's larger bull traps as market participants start calling a bottom during the rebound. He argues a drop from current levels would help flush overleveraged positions before any more durable recovery. Volatility is expected to persist. Kaz anticipates July will remain choppy and notes the month could still finish positive even with an initial dip, given the monthly open sits near the broader range. He also flags August as a potential more bearish stretch that could ultimately mark the bear-market bottom. For now, the market's focus is whether Bitcoin can sustain the relief rally or begins to roll over at resistance. If sellers regain control in the highlighted zones, the move higher could prove to be a trap ahead of a deeper decline.