Copper prices seen pushing to new highs as global mine supply risks a 2026 decline
AI Market Summary
The newsletter highlights a looming mined-copper supply contraction in 2026—driven by Chilean output declines, lower ore grades, and disruptions—while demand remains firm from China, electrification, AI, and data-center buildouts. A rising Yangshan premium signals tight physical conditions, and bank estimates point to sub-trend supply growth, implying a structural deficit backdrop. Near term, headline risk includes US-China trade talks and geopolitical tensions.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO724COPPER2USD/USDT+1.90%
AI Insight · NCCO724COPPER2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Global mined copper supply faces a risk of falling in 2026. Chile, the largest copper-producing country, is expected to see output drop 6.5% in the first half of 2026, while Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are projected to cut a combined 600,000 tonnes—nearly 2.5% of global supply. Copper prices have risen more than 45% over the past year as demand in China remains strong, with the Yangshan copper premium reaching its highest level since November 2022.
