Bitcoin Price Watch: Analyst Flags $77,000–$79,000 as a Make-or-Break Support Zone

Bitcoin traded in a tight range for an extended period before a fresh wave of risk-off pressure hit the market, dragging BTC down toward the $82,000 area. Traders pointed to activity in U.S. government-linked wallets and renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted oil above $100 and weighed on global risk appetite—adding to selling pressure and triggering a sharp move lower. With debate growing over whether the slide has further to run, analysts are increasingly focused on levels tied to institutional cost bases. Joao Wedson, CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, said aggregate positioning in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded companies suggests a major support band sits near $77,000–$79,000. Wedson cited data showing combined holdings of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and listed companies at 2.57 million BTC, with a large share acquired near the same price region. In his breakdown: - U.S. spot ETFs: 1.29M BTC, average cost $76,909 - Publicly traded companies: 1.28M BTC, average cost $78,834 In total, 2.57M BTC—nearly 13% of circulating supply—was purchased at roughly similar levels, making the $77,000–$79,000 area pivotal for keeping institutional positions in profit. Wedson added that at a BTC price of $83,200, ETF investors show an MVRV of 1.08x with about $8.1 billion in unrealized gains, while publicly traded companies show an MVRV of 1.06x with roughly $5.6 billion in unrealized gains. He also outlined additional cost markers below $83,000: iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) at $81,277, treasury companies at $79,782, Strategy (MSTR) at $75,441, public miners at $69,498, and private companies at $33,789. Looking back to a prior drawdown that took Bitcoin to $58,500, Wedson noted that ETF holders saw average positions fall by around 24%, yet there was no broad capitulation. He argued that holding above $77,000–$79,000 could help contain selling pressure by keeping a large share of institutional investors in the green. A breakdown below that band, he warned, could push roughly 2.57 million BTC of institutional holdings back into losses and intensify market-wide selling. This is not investment advice.