Kevin Warsh is set to face internal pushback at the Federal Reserve if he presses for interest-rate cuts, as inflation is accelerating and Treasury yields are rising. Recent FOMC comments have emphasized keeping the door open to possible hikes, creating a tougher backdrop for any easing push. Observers say Warsh may focus early on changing the Fed's communications to reduce perceived signals about the next policy move.

Global oil inventories are being drawn down quickly to offset a major Middle East supply disruption, and could approach record lows by the end of May if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. UBS estimates stockpiles fell from just over 8 billion barrels at the end of February to 7.8 billion by end of April, with a potential drop toward 7.6 billion by end of May. Analysts across firms warn that prices may need to jump to curb demand before inventories reach levels that would strain the supply system.

On Saturday, the UAE said its decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ was driven by national economic priorities rather than politics, while reiterating a commitment to market stability. The country previously said it would exit OPEC on May 1 after being a member since 1967. Oil prices rose Friday, with Brent July futures closing up more than 3% at $109.26 a barrel and WTI June futures settling up more than 4% at $105.42.

U.S. ethics filings show President Donald Trump bought Palantir shares in early 2026, then later praised PLTR on Truth Social. The documents list purchases of $247,008 to $630,000 in the first three months of the year, including up to $530,000 across at least seven buys in March. The filings also show sales, including as much as $5 million on Feb. 10, alongside trades in Nvidia, Amazon and Apple.

Cerebras Systems surged in its Wall Street debut on Thursday, ending its first session with a market cap just under $100 billion before trading lower on Friday. The company sells dinner-plate-sized custom ASICs and says its WSE-3 is 57 times larger than the biggest GPU and packs 50 times more transistors. Cerebras also runs its chips through its own cloud data centers, with a $20 billion OpenAI cloud deal running through 2028 and sales said to be booked out into 2027.

U.S. Treasury yields rose Friday morning after a volatile week of inflation readings as markets assessed policy under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The 30-year yield increased 8.6 basis points to just under 5.1%, while the 10-year moved to 4.55% and the 2-year reached 4.06%. Inflation and energy-price pressures, along with fiscal and global bond-market moves, were also in focus.

Kalshi traders are assigning close to a 40% probability that the economy faces stagflation—high inflation alongside unemployment—by the end of 2026. The implied odds rose from 11% in under three months, while a soft-landing outcome is priced at 21%, the lowest on Kalshi's economy scenarios. Separately, traders put the chance that inflation is at least 4.5% this year at above 65%.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran submitted his resignation letter Thursday and said he will leave the Board of Governors when, or shortly before, incoming Chair Kevin Warsh is seated. Miran had been a consistent dissent on the FOMC, voting against three 0.25-percentage-point rate cuts approved in 2025 and opposing this year's three decisions to keep rates unchanged. He said he supports changes Warsh may pursue, including communications policy, balance sheet policy, and keeping the Fed focused on a narrow mandate.

Barclays said prediction markets have surged in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with growth accelerating last fall. The bank said monthly notional volume now sits near leveraged exchange-traded products and some call overwrite strategies, though it still trails the scale of S&P 500 zero-day-to-expiration options.