The Federal Reserve's December 11 dot plot shows a median projection of 25 basis points in cumulative rate cuts for 2026, BlockBeats reports. Among 19 officials, seven projected no cuts, four saw 25 basis points, four saw 50 basis points, two saw 75 basis points, one saw 100 basis points, and one anticipated 150 basis points.

Japan's Financial Services Agency outlined a plan to move crypto asset regulation from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, which governs investment and securities markets, according to a Financial System Council working group report released on Dec. 10. Key changes include stricter disclosure requirements for IEOs such as project core team details, third-party code audits and self-regulatory organization input, as well as mandatory issuer identification and token distribution disclosures regardless of decentralization level. The framework would expand enforcement against unregistered platforms including overseas and DEX-like operators, explicitly prohibit insider trading in line with EU's MiCA and South Korean rules, while Japan's government separately considers a unified 20% tax rate on crypto trading profits and the FSA voiced cautious views on derivatives tied to overseas crypto ETFs, describing the underlying assets as "not ideal."

Andrzej Skiba, Head of U.S. Fixed Income at RBC Global Asset Management, anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement an interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting. However, Skiba cautions that the robust U.S. economic momentum may render further rate cuts unnecessary.RBC's base assumption includes this rate cut, which Skiba describes as potentially a 'hawkish cut,' implying a subsequent pause in monetary policy adjustments. He elaborated, 'In our view, inflation and labor market data should prompt the Federal Reserve to hold steady after this initial rate cut, reassessing the economic situation early next year.'Market participants will closely monitor dissenting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, particularly those advocating for more aggressive reductions versus those who believe the U.S. economy doesn't warrant any cuts. Skiba further projected, 'Following this rate cut, and with our projection for accelerated U.S. economic growth in 2026, the necessity for further rate reductions may dissipate. For political reasons (such as a potential Federal Reserve leadership change in May), we might see one rate cut, but the economy itself may not require another cut for a foreseeable period.' This analysis was initially reported by financial news outlets.

U.S. banks can offer crypto trade intermediation under new OCC guidance on December 10, Bloomberg Law reported. An OCC memorandum said banks may act as brokers by buying assets from one counterparty and selling them to another. It said lenders would not hold any crypto assets.

On Dec. 10, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said multiple ICO categories should be treated as non-securities outside the SEC's regulatory remit at the Blockchain Association's annual policy summit, Decrypt reported. He cited his token taxonomy introduced last month, which divides crypto into four main token types and says network tokens, digital collectibles and digital utilities are not securities. He added that the only ICO category the SEC should supervise is tokenized securities, defined as on-chain tokenization of securities already regulated by the SEC.

On December 10 in Washington D.C., Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Cynthia Lummis detailed plans for the US Congress to advance comprehensive oversight of the cryptocurrency industry, saying they aim to publish a draft of the CLARITY Act, a market structure bill, by the end of this week and hold a hearing next week to amend and vote on it, BlockBeats reported. Lummis said Democrats and Republicans are in ongoing negotiations, held their first bipartisan meeting last week with what she described as very good progress, and claimed that nothing is blocking the bill. Congress has spent years trying to move broader crypto market structure legislation with limited progress, while the House in July passed its version of the Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act, which has given new momentum to similar efforts in the Senate. The Senate Banking Committee already has a draft that seeks to delineate oversight between the SEC and CFTC and introduces the term "ancillary assets" to clarify which cryptocurrencies are not securities, while the Senate Agriculture Committee last month released its own draft to grant the CFTC additional authority.