The U.S.-Iran war is nearing the three-month mark with no deal in place, while President Donald Trump has warned a new U.S. attack on Iran could occur in the coming days. Iran has also launched a Bitcoin-backed shipping insurance product, as oil stays above $100 per barrel and Bitcoin trades around $77,000.

Bitcoin traded slightly higher on May 20 at 8 a.m. ET, holding around $77,440 as the market weighed mixed momentum signals and nearby resistance. BTC was up about 0.4% over 24 hours with roughly $26.69 billion in volume, while traders focused on whether price can clear the $77,500–$78,000 zone or slip back toward support near $76,500.

On May 19, 2026, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster signed Senate Bill S.163 into law, banning state participation in any CBDC use or pilots while requiring tax-neutral treatment for digital-asset transactions. The measure passed the House 110-1 and includes protections for proof-of-work miners, self-custody, and limits on discriminatory local rules. Bitcoin traded around $77,000 as the article framed $75,000 as a key support and $80,000 as a potential recovery level.

Bitcoin has slid about 5% over the past week after strength in late April and early May, putting focus on whether a key support level can hold. Analysts cite MVRV-based signals that could point to a move toward nearly $95,000 if BTC stays above $72,960, or a pullback to just under $55,000 if it breaks lower.

Ali Martinez said on May 20 that Bitcoin could move toward $94,849 if it stays above the $72,962 support area. He based the levels on Glassnode's MVRV Ratio, with $94,849 matching the long-run average and $72,962 sitting about 0.5 standard deviations below the mean. Martinez also warned that losing $72,962 could open the way toward the realized price near $54,270.

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis said the United States needs to move quickly on crypto legislation, arguing it could lose digital-asset leadership to China and Europe without action. She pointed to China's digital yuan expansion and the EU's MiCA regime, while noting the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act are moving through the Senate with a 2026 vote target.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.8B in net redemptions over six trading days in May 2026, including a $648.64 million outflow on May 18 led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $448 million. Total net assets slipped below $100.49 billion as inflation data and U.S. legislative developments weighed on risk appetite.

Wintermute said in its May 18 market update that Bitcoin's recent push higher failed its first major macro test and was driven more by leverage and short covering than sustained spot demand. The firm cited hotter inflation, higher Treasury yields, ETF outflows and renewed rate-hike pricing, noting BTC reversed after briefly topping $82,000 and ended the week near $78,000, with weekend moves toward $77,000 tied to $657 million in liquidations. Wintermute said $76,000–$78,000 is the near-term support zone, while a drop below $75,000 could put $70,000–$72,000 back in view; BTC was $77,297 at press time.