LNG spot prices are climbing on seasonal demand, while some Asian importers are pulling back on purchases. September LNG arrivals in Asia are expected to fall year over year, even as European imports rise this month and next because EU gas storage remains well below the five-year average for this time of year. Spot LNG prices have climbed 150% since February.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange hit a record $14,779 a ton on Tuesday, taking its year-to-date gain to nearly 18%. Over the same period, global smelting economics deteriorated sharply as spot treatment and refining charges fell to about negative $127 a ton, effectively forcing smelters to pay miners to process concentrate. China, which smelts roughly half of the world’s copper and has accounted for more than 90% of global smelting capacity growth since 2005, has continued to tighten its grip on processing.

London Metal Exchange copper futures hit a record high on Tuesday, reaching $14,533 a ton, up 17% this year. Traders expect potential U.S. tariff policy to pull large volumes of copper into U.S. warehouses, and the U.S. has overimported 730k MT year-to-date, tightening supply elsewhere. Scrap copper remains tight, with secondary rod output down 50% y/y, while inventories in China have fallen sharply both upstream and downstream, adding support to prices.

LME copper has logged its longest run of weekly gains since 1994, with prices trading near $14,300 a ton and close to record highs. Supply is tightening as Freeport cut its 2026 output guidance at Indonesia’s Grasberg complex by roughly a third and global mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of the year. Chile’s second-quarter output was its weakest in at least 19 years, while uncertainty over Congo’s export ban and U.S. tariff decisions is adding pressure on supply chains.

Qatar has extended force majeure on its LNG deliveries into November as transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain blocked, lifting gas prices in both Asia and Europe. Asia’s spot LNG price rose to $23.388 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), while Europe’s Dutch TTF benchmark moved above $80 per megawatthour. Europe is approaching winter with gas storage only 63% full, well below the five-year average of about 80%, adding to supply concerns.

Europe’s surge in energy prices after the Iran conflict disrupted supply has revived inflation worries. Data show European gas storage is only about 63%, leaving policymakers and bond investors more focused on rising natural gas prices than higher crude futures. A sharp jump in gas prices could add to inflation and push the European Central Bank toward more rate hikes than markets expect, after its first increase in June and with another move anticipated in September.

The LME copper cash premium narrowed sharply after about 20,000 tons arrived, pushing the cash-to-three-month spread from $545 a ton on Monday to $248. A U.S. Commerce Department recommendation on refined copper duties that was due June 30 has not been published, leaving a proposed 15% tariff for January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, unresolved. Despite a rebound in inventories last week, on-warrant stock remains down roughly 75% from its mid-April peak.

LME aluminum stocks have fallen to their lowest level since 1990. Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil cut output by 50% after an interruption to natural gas supplies, despite annual capacity of 6.3 million metric tons. The news lifted London aluminum nearly 2% to $3,373 a metric ton and pushed Shanghai alumina futures up 1%. Copper futures in London also rose above $14,000 per ton as metal flows into the U.S. ahead of a possible U.S. tariff tightened global supply.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation reported net profit of 170.34 billion rupees (about $1.8 billion) for the quarter ended June, more than doubling from a year earlier and beating expectations. Revenue rose 45% year on year to 464.60 billion rupees. The gain was driven by a near-50% jump in average Brent prices amid tighter Persian Gulf supply linked to the U.S.-Iran war, alongside a weaker rupee. Output fell 3.4%, but per-barrel earnings increased 50.4% and profits from newer deepwater acreage surged 61.5%.