Bitcoin's 20-week rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has moved back into positive territory, a setup that has previously coincided with deep BTC drawdowns. BTC/USD was down 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700 as of Sunday, while the S&P 500 finished the week 1.90% lower.

Ether (ETH) could advance about 25% in the coming months after the largest wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH moved back into aggregate profit for the first time since early February. If past post-signal patterns repeat, ETH may aim for around $2,750 by June and potentially above $3,200 by September, while other on-chain and chart levels highlight $2,353 and $2,640 as key hurdles.

Bitcoin has held up better than US equities and gold since the Feb. 28 US and Israel–Iran conflict escalation, but analysts warn a move in oil toward $180 per barrel could pressure BTC in the months ahead. If the oil shock persists, some projections put US CPI near 5% and push rate-cut expectations further out, conditions that could weigh on risk assets and align with a technical downside target around $51,000–$52,000.

Strategy has halted its Bitcoin accumulation via STRC preferred stock after failing to secure new capital since Friday, following a drop in STRC below its $100 par value. Historical episodes when STRC traded under par have coincided with 25%–40% declines in Bitcoin, and current chart patterns suggest BTC could revisit support levels near $66,000–$68,000 or, on a deeper breakdown, approach $51,000.

Bitcoin climbed over 7% to about $70,625 in the past week while the S&P 500 fell 1.60%, as Strategy's STRC instrument raised roughly $776 million that could buy more than 11,000 BTC. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $767 million of net inflows over five consecutive trading days, but a bear flag pattern on the BTC chart implies downside risk toward $51,000.

Bitcoin's market structure is flashing a potential bottom as a macro model based on the US and China 10-year yields issues a fresh bullish crossover. Large Bitcoin holders holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulation during the latest price drop, while key weekly moving averages and an oversold RSI suggest room for a rebound toward the $100,000 area in the coming months.

Strategy's STRC preferred stock, which currently yields 11.50% annually with monthly cash distributions, has helped fund purchases of over 3,500 BTC so far this week. With a 30-day average STRC trading volume of $138.5 million and Bitcoin near $71,000, the structure implies potential buying capacity of around 1,940 BTC per day, and Strategy's total holdings could surpass 1 million BTC by August.

Bitwise Europe's research head André Dragosch shared an analysis of Bitcoin's history from July 17, 2010 to Feb. 11, 2026, showing that holding BTC for at least three years historically left just a 0.70% chance of loss. Glassnode's realized-price data indicate three–five-year holders still sit near 90% gains despite a drawdown from the October 2025 peak.

On Monday, Glassnode flagged that Bitcoin's 90‑day realized profit/loss ratio fell below 1, indicating traders are selling at a loss for the first time since 2022. Similar signals preceded declines of about 25% in 2022 and over 50% in 2018. MVRV pricing bands place an extreme-low zone near $43,760 as of February if weakness persists.