VanEck Models Bitcoin as Structural Asset, Sees 15% Annual Returns Over 25 Years

On 10 January 2026, VanEck outlined a capital markets framework modeling Bitcoin’s evolution through 2050. The paper frames Bitcoin as a structural monetary asset, with a base case of roughly 15% annual compounding and expected volatility of 40%–70%, while small 1%–3% allocations are shown to improve portfolio efficiency.