Bitcoin CVDD Model and Drawdown Data Indicate Early Bear Phase, Not Deep Undervaluation

Bitcoin has been trading sideways since late November around the $90,000–$91,000 zone after failing to hold above its October 2025 peak. Analyst Axel Adler notes that the current drawdown from the October high is about −27%, with a maximum pullback near −33%, far milder than earlier cycles that saw declines of −75% to −92%. CVDD model readings show BTC still trading roughly 2x above its long‑term on‑chain fair value near $46,600, suggesting the market has not yet entered a classic capitulation phase.