IEA data show 14.95 million barrels per day of crude oil exports transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. Iran accounted for about 1.69 mbd and is expected to keep relying on the strait over the long term because it effectively controls the waterway. Of the remaining 13.26 mbd, as much as 11.5 mbd could eventually be rerouted by maximising existing pipeline capacity and completing projects under construction, based on official announcements and industry experts. Before war broke out in late February, Saudi Arabia was already shipping around 2 mbd via its EastWest Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery south of Moscow, sending thick smoke over the city and drawing widespread attention. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that a direct NATO-Russia confrontation could escalate into an exchange of nuclear strikes with “catastrophic consequences.” He also said Russia plans regular large-scale conventional strikes against targets that directly affect Ukraine’s combat readiness. The incident has sharpened concerns over the security of energy infrastructure and the fragility of Black Sea and Russia–Europe energy routes, despite no known export disruption.