Global gold and silver prices surged, with spot gold rising to $4,165.29 an ounce—its highest since late June—and spot silver gaining 2.1% to $62.28. The move followed weaker-than-expected US labour market data that fuelled expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. In India, shares of gold loan firms Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance, along with silver producer Hindustan Zinc, advanced. Domestic gold rebounded to Rs 148046 per 10 grams, about 5.4% above this week’s low.

Indian stocks opened higher on July 3, with the Sensex and Nifty both up 0.71%, after a softer U.S. jobs report prompted markets to scale back expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The Nifty Metal index rose nearly 2%, led by gains of nearly 3% in Hindustan Zinc and more than 4% in National Aluminium Co. IT stocks advanced 1.9%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.6% and gold extended its rally. India VIX slipped to 11.99, signalling reduced volatility.

Lead prices slid to their lowest level of 2026, down 11% from the January peak and about 9% over the past month. The drop directly lowers input costs for lead-acid battery makers Exide and Amara Raja, where lead makes up 65–70% of raw-material costs. Exide rose 7.45% on the day and is up 40% over the past three months. The move is driven by a sharp decline in spot lead prices, a negative catalyst for lead-linked assets.

On July 2, the Indian rupee opened 32 paise stronger at 94.93 per dollar, marking a three-week high, as Brent crude fell to around $71 a barrel. The pullback in oil followed reported progress in U.S.-Iran talks, with attention on shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar index hovered near 101.1, while higher U.S. Treasury yields limited the rupee’s rebound. Markets are awaiting payrolls data later in the day for direction.

The United States and Iran agreed to pause recent hostilities and resume diplomatic talks, easing some geopolitical pressure. Brent crude rose 0.8% to $72.6 a barrel after a supertanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, though gains were capped by the ceasefire understanding. Gold fell 0.8% to $4,057 an ounce as risk appetite improved. U.S. stock futures rebounded, with Nasdaq futures up 1.1% and S&P 500 futures up 0.7%, while Indian equities remained weaker.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 10 urged Indians to defer buying gold and taking overseas vacations for a year to conserve foreign exchange. In the same month, the government raised the import duty on gold and silver to 15% from 6%. By June 28, India’s 24K gold price had fallen by Rs 13,267 per 10 grams to Rs 1,39,873, and silver was down Rs 45,809 per kilogram to Rs 2,16,541. The measures have weighed on demand and import momentum for precious metals.

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7, triggering passive buying by ETFs that track the benchmark such as Invesco QQQ. JPMorgan estimates the move could bring about $4.3 billion of passive inflows. The company listed on Nasdaq on June 12 and is not yet profitable, reporting a $4.9 billion net loss in 2023. Nasdaq has eased index entry requirements, while S&P Global said it is not changing S&P 500 eligibility rules for now.

SpaceX is scheduled to be formally added to the Russell U.S. indexes after Friday’s close, triggering about $3 billion of mandatory buying by passive index funds. Most of the rebalancing is expected to be executed in the closing auction, concentrating demand into a short window and potentially creating a brief squeeze. The company is valued at 107 times its 2025 sales, far above peers such as Nvidia, and it is also slated to join the Nasdaq 100 in July, expanding index-driven demand further.

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange fell sharply, with aluminium down more than 3% to $3,122.50 per tonne. Zinc, copper and silver each declined about 2% to $3,421.50 per tonne, $13,086.50 per tonne and $3,421.50 per tonne, respectively. The drop was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike, which can lift financing costs and curb demand for dollar-priced commodities. Indian metal stocks also came under pressure, with NALCO, Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta down 3.27% to 4.38% on the day, extending a three-session decline.