From March to May 2024, India’s three state-run refiners—Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL)—imported about six million barrels of crude from Nigeria’s SEEPCO. The purchases were aimed at reducing exposure to geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz and bolstering supply resilience. SEEPCO is controlled by Indian businessman Nitin Sandesara and is the only Indian-owned crude producer operating in an OPEC member country, Nigeria. While the volume is small in global trade terms, it underscores Africa’s role as a practical strategic hedge.

The U.S. and Iran have reached an initial agreement to end their conflict, including lifting blockades, easing sanctions and dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, with signing planned for June 19 in Switzerland. After the news, Brent crude fell more than 4% to a two-month low below $83 a barrel, while gold jumped over 2.5% and the dollar index DXY slipped to around 99.5, a one-week low. Markets are betting the deal could materially cool inflation expectations and reduce the need for Federal Reserve rate hikes. The agreement has not been formally signed, leaving uncertainty over implementation.