The article says Brent crude futures have retreated from a May peak of $126 a barrel to just above $70, close to pre-war levels. It adds that global inventories still need replenishing, some war-damaged production remains short of full capacity, and risks are building. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Sunday, which could offer fresh clues on supply policy, but the outcome has not yet been announced.

Indian equities opened higher on Friday, with the Nifty 50 rising 0.83% to 24,375.65 and the BSE Sensex up 0.84% to 78,152.34. Information technology stocks led sector gains, climbing 1.9%, while HCLTech jumped 5.2% after announcing a $1.14 billion strategic partnership with a European firm. The advance followed a softer U.S. June jobs report and downward revisions to the prior two months, which strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold off on near-term rate increases, Reuters reported.

Brazil’s planning and budget minister said the government will take longer to phase out the 1.12 real-per-liter diesel subsidy than the gasoline benefit to avoid price shocks and fuel shortages. The 0.44 real-per-liter gasoline subsidy is set to be removed within days. The plan comes as Brent crude has fallen from a wartime peak of $118 a barrel to $71.51, though the decline has not been fully passed on to consumers. The government is also weighing whether to cut or end the 12% crude oil export tax introduced in March.

In the first half of 2026, the Iran war disrupted Persian Gulf supply chains, with missile attacks from February forcing aluminium smelter outages and cutting regional output at an annualised rate of 2 million tonnes. LME aluminium inventories fell to just over 400,000 tonnes, a multi-year low, while the three-month price reached a four-year high of $3,787.50 a tonne in early June. Copper, zinc and other LME metals also rallied, supported by a geopolitics-driven premium and shifting supply-demand dynamics.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said at a Banco de España conference in Santander, Spain, that U.S. monetary policy is “slightly restrictive,” but the Fed’s next step is unclear. She cited exceedingly strong investment growth in AI-related technology, a stable labor market and a decline in oil prices since the Iran war ceasefire. Daly said AI’s effect on inflation is uncertain and could cut both ways, lifting demand in the near term while boosting supply over time. Separately, U.S. job growth slowed sharply last month, prompting traders to scale back bets on rate hikes in July and September.

Gold rose 0.7% on Thursday to $4,057.92 per ounce, its highest since June 23, with silver, platinum and palladium also gaining. The move followed an ADP report showing private employment rose by 98,000 last month, below economists’ forecast of 118,000, prompting traders to reassess the odds of a September Fed rate hike. Oil prices fell after Iran and the United States held indirect talks on the Strait of Hormuz with little progress, easing some inflation concerns. Investors are awaiting June’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later in the day for further clues on the Fed’s policy path.

Short interest in SpaceX has surged to 196 million shares, about 31% of the free float, roughly doubling from a week earlier. Short sellers are now sitting on about $760 million in mark-to-market losses, after a prior $2.5 billion paper gain was erased by the stock’s rebound. Borrowing costs remain around 1%, but the elevated short positioning could amplify price swings and raise the odds of short covering if the rally continues, according to Ortex data.

A 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire signed in mid-June has lifted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz to 242 vessels a week, up from about 60 during the conflict but still well below the pre-war level of 700-plus. The recovery remains uneven, with too few westbound ballast crude tankers available to load. The Middle East-to-China TD3C freight index is still at $313,000 per day versus a long-run average of less than $100,000 per day, keeping transport costs elevated. About 9 million barrels per day of potential capacity has been voluntarily curtailed due to shipping uncertainty, a shortfall that could widen the global supply gap if it does not return.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said in a CNBC interview that additional interest-rate increases could be warranted if inflation pressures fail to ease. She said inflation has been too high for the past five years and stressed that policy decisions should remain data-dependent. The remarks were her first public comments under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and signaled a more hawkish tilt. Recent Fed meeting minutes offered no forward guidance, underscoring the new leadership’s preference for letting markets price the outlook.