On July 1, spot gold climbed 2.1% to $4,089.49 per ounce, a near six-month high, while silver, platinum and palladium rose 2.8%, 3.1% and 1.6%, respectively. The move followed an ADP report showing U.S. private payrolls rose by 98,000 versus forecasts of 118,000, alongside Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation expectations and risks have eased, according to Reuters. Lower Treasury yields boosted demand for non-yielding precious metals. Markets are awaiting Thursday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high in May, a sign the labor market remains strong and giving investors more reason to expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates high or raise them again. Markets are now focused on Thursday’s June nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the policy path. The dollar index was 101.393 and the U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.46%, while gold slipped below $4,000 to 3,979 and Brent and WTI traded at $71.91 and $68.59, respectively, pressured by a strong dollar and high rates.

Most currency strategists still expect the U.S. dollar to weaken in the months ahead, even after a roughly 4% rebound from May’s low, a Reuters FX poll conducted June 26–July 1 showed. They pointed to cooling oil prices that are easing inflation worries and reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. A growing minority has turned less bearish, with about one-third now forecasting the euro to be flat or lower against the dollar over the next three months. Oil was cited as a key driver of the outlook.

On July 1, U.S. stock index futures opened lower, with Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.26%, 0.3% and 0.54%, respectively. The move followed Iran’s refusal to meet senior U.S. officials who traveled to the Middle East, reviving doubts over the outlook for peace talks. Investors are also watching remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at a forum in Portugal and the upcoming ISM manufacturing data. Strong employment data has reinforced expectations of an interest-rate hike later this year.

On July 1, spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,974.75 an ounce, after touching an intraday low of $3,942.99, the weakest level since last November. Silver, platinum and palladium also declined. The drop followed a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year at 4.465%, and a market-implied 67% chance of a Fed rate hike by September, compounded by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaling a preference for further tightening.

U.S. stock index futures were broadly lower, with S&P 500 and Dow futures down 0.4% and Nasdaq futures off 0.55%. New York gold futures slid 1.6% to $3,974 an ounce as Treasury yields pushed to one-week highs, with the 2-year at 4.175% and the 10-year at 4.464%. Traders leaned further into expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate increases ahead of Thursday’s June nonfarm payrolls report and remarks expected from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Sintra forum. Tech names including ASML and Micron were weaker in premarket trading.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on gasoline retailers to lower prices as the country marks its 250th anniversary, warning that “we’re watching.” President Donald Trump had earlier threatened “big problems” if prices do not fall to around $2.50 a gallon. The push follows a recent oil-price surge tied to U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliation, before prices eased after an initial agreement was signed this month.

The U.S. Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision, blocked President Donald Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for now after finding she was not given the procedural protections required by statute. The ruling effectively preserves term protections rooted in the 1930s Humphrey’s Executor precedent for independent regulators, while a separate decision broadened presidential power to dismiss leaders of other federal agencies. The court explicitly carved out the Fed, reinforcing market confidence in the central bank’s policy independence and reducing near-term risks of political interference.

Donald Trump said on Truth Social that gasoline retailers should immediately lower pump prices to around $2.50 per gallon, warning of “big problems” if they do not. He previously instructed the Justice Department to examine oil companies for allegedly keeping pump prices high despite declining crude costs. The article also notes that oil prices rose earlier this year after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks, with a ceasefire reached in April and later extended amid mutual accusations of violations.