Grayscale says Bitcoin no longer follows four-year halving cycle as institutions and macro factors drive pricing

Grayscale stated that the halving-driven pricing pattern that characterized Bitcoin's early history is losing influence as more BTC enters circulation and each halving's relative impact diminishes, meaning the market structure no longer adheres to a "four-year cycle", according to a Cointelegraph report on December 9. The firm noted that today's Bitcoin market is increasingly led by institutional capital rather than the retail speculation that dominated earlier cycles, with the latest rally appearing more controlled than the explosive surges seen in 2013 and 2017 and the subsequent 30% pullback resembling a typical bull-market correction. Grayscale added that interest-rate expectations, progress on U.S. bipartisan crypto regulation, and the growing inclusion of Bitcoin in institutional portfolios are playing an expanding role in shaping BTC price action.