Global central banks turn more hawkish as Iran conflict lifts oil; ECB hike bets build

Major central banks struck a more hawkish tone this week even as they left policy rates unchanged, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank all holding steady. Market expectations for the ECB are shifting quickly. Barclays and J.P. Morgan now see the risk of an interest-rate increase as early as April, with additional moves possible through the summer. Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which the ECB delivers a cumulative 75 basis points of tightening starting in June. The BoE also flagged renewed inflation pressure, warning price growth could rise to 3.5% as oil prices surge. Brent crude traded above $119 a barrel after attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East.