Bitcoin Treads Water as Hormuz Risks and Higher Yields Keep Pressure on Risk Assets Despite Clarity Act Boost

Bitcoin is struggling to find direction as macro and geopolitical forces dominate investor attention. Even after a regulatory tailwind from the Clarity Act, BTC has remained unusually quiet, hovering around $77,200 (last quoted $77,349.71), little changed over the past 24 hours and essentially flat on the week. The real action is in commodities and rates. Disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly affected sulfur shipments, a key input for sulfuric acid used in copper refining. That has fueled speculative interest in copper and kept oil prices elevated near $100 a barrel. The resulting inflation anxiety has contributed to higher bond yields, a backdrop that tends to weigh on risk assets such as crypto. U.S. equities, by contrast, are pressing toward record territory on renewed AI optimism, reinforcing a market narrative centered on geopolitics and AI-led growth rather than bitcoin. Fund flows reflect the shift in attention. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.15 billion of outflows this week, following $1 billion of outflows last week, according to SoSoValue. The Coinbase premium, often used as a proxy for U.S. demand relative to offshore markets, has slipped to its lowest level in a month. Analysts say these demand gauges likely need to improve materially before bitcoin can sustain a meaningful rally, and it remains uncertain whether that can happen while Hormuz and AI stay in focus. Crypto performance is not uniformly weak. Select themes are attracting bids on new narratives and product updates, including onchain perpetuals and quantum-resistant tokens. Layer-1 protocol Near (NEAR) jumped more than 25% over the past 24 hours after announcing a major upgrade aimed at automated scaling and improved quantum resilience. In traditional markets, Nasdaq futures gave back early gains and are trading roughly flat. Even so, strategists remain broadly constructive on equities following the latest earnings season. Bottom line: macro forces continue to drive risk-on/risk-off conditions, keeping bitcoin in a holding pattern for now. Technical note: HYPE's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above 70. Many traders treat readings above 70 as "overbought," but RSI is fundamentally a momentum measure; strong uptrends can keep RSI elevated for extended periods without an immediate reversal. For more: see Crypto Markets Today for altcoin and derivatives moves, and CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead" for the upcoming events calendar.