21Shares macro head Stephen Coltman said the 2026 divergence between Bitcoin and gold reflects different buyer bases, with gold more tied to central bank demand while BTC is more widely held by individuals. He noted gold slipped to about $4,497 per ounce after peaking near $5,600 in January 2026, while Bitcoin stayed relatively steady as Middle East hostilities began. Coltman argued around-the-clock BTC access can matter during crises, as some regional exchanges were shut down shortly after the conflict started.

SkyBridge managing partner Anthony Scaramucci said Bitcoin’s bear market still fits a four-year cycle framework and may stay volatile for most of the year before turning higher in Q4 2026. He added that ETF inflows and institutional participation have reduced volatility without fully eliminating cyclical behavior, and cited the prior drop from about $126,000 to $60,000 as an example of sentiment getting upended.

Fidelity Investments told the US SEC on Friday that the agency should keep building a clearer framework for broker-dealers to offer, custody and trade crypto assets on alternative trading systems. The firm said comprehensive rules are "critical" for tokenized securities, including third-party issuances, and it also urged guidance to allow distributed ledger technology for ATS recordkeeping.

The US SEC and CFTC released new guidance on Tuesday outlining a five-part taxonomy for digital assets, including digital commodities, NFTs, digital tools, stablecoins and tokenized securities. Galaxy research head Alex Thorn said the shift to an interpretive rule could give the industry clearer expectations for about the next 30 months, while longer-term certainty would require the CLARITY market-structure bill to become law. Politico later reported a tentative White House–lawmaker deal to advance CLARITY, though details remain undisclosed.

Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin said traders are underestimating the length and severity of the Middle East war's economic fallout and are leaning on the "TACO" trade narrative. He argued that if oil stays above $100 per barrel, growth could slow while PCE inflation rises by as much as 1 percentage point, increasing stagflation risk and complicating the Federal Reserve's path on rates.

The Bitcoin Policy Institute said Kentucky House Bill 380 contains language that would require hardware wallet makers to help users reset passwords, PINs or seed phrases, potentially undermining self-custody. The group said the requirement was inserted via a last-minute floor amendment and would also add identity checks for people requesting a reset.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% while assessing the economic fallout from the war in the Middle East and its effect on energy prices. Chair Jerome Powell said growth and consumer spending remain solid but highlighted soft housing, a cooling labor market and inflation still above the 2% goal, creating tension in the Fed's dual mandate. Derivatives data show most traders expect no change at the April 2026 meeting, while market commentators debate how prolonged liquidity support could influence broader risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The FTX Recovery Trust plans to distribute $2.2 billion to eligible creditors and former customers on March 31, 2026, marking its fourth reimbursement round since February 2025. The plan includes specific payout percentages for different claim types and will lift the cumulative amount returned to about $10 billion, while some creditors continue to argue the recoveries are insufficient. The payments are based on 2022 petition-date crypto valuations and come as former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried pursues an appeal and potential prison transfer.

Over the last 24 hours, Bhutan’s state investment arm Druk Holding and Investments transferred more than 973 BTC, exceeding $72.3 million, and also moved over 175 BTC on March 10. After its Bitcoin stash peaked at around 13,295 BTC in October 2024, the country now holds just over 4,400 BTC as it continues to liquidate part of its reserve through periodic sales.