In the first days of 2026, Bitcoin climbed back toward the top of its weekly range, approaching $94,800 while major altcoins also advanced. Price has traded above the 20-day moving average, with liquidation clusters forming between $89,000 and $87,000 and near $95,000 resistance. On Jan. 5, a futures buy surge of nearly $1.1 billion and about $100 million in short liquidations drove intraday volatility, leaving Bitcoin in a range shaped by leveraged positioning around key levels.

Bloomberg Intelligence projects that annual stablecoin payment flows could climb from $2.9 trillion in 2025 to $56.6 trillion by 2030, implying an 81% compound annual growth rate. In 2025, overall stablecoin transactions reached $33 trillion, with USDC recording $18.3 trillion in volume versus $13.3 trillion for USDT, while USDT still led in market capitalization.

Prediction market data shows traders favor measured gains for Bitcoin before 2027, with 80% odds for $100,000 and declining probabilities for $120,000–$150,000. Analysts remain upbeat on the longer-term path, citing potential U.S. policy shifts, rate-cut expectations, and regulatory initiatives as catalysts in 2026.

Bitcoin hovered around $88,000 on Sunday, with traders bracing for increased volatility into the weekly close. Some analysts expect a breakout toward the $98,000–$100,000 area and even a medium-term move to $150,000, while others warn of a possible correction back to the $70,000–$72,000 demand zone. Rising BTC inflows to Binance and key moving average signals are being monitored as potential catalysts for sharp price moves.

Macro specialists warn that Bitcoin could retreat toward the 70,000 dollar area if the Bank of Japan implements the widely expected interest rate hike on December 19, with past BOJ tightening cycles linked to sharp BTC pullbacks. Analysts point to global liquidity stress, unwinding yen carry trades and a current bear flag structure after the drop from 105,000–110,000 dollars as factors keeping Bitcoin's short-term outlook fragile.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warned that a 30% decline in Tether's Bitcoin and gold holdings could eliminate the stablecoin issuer's equity cushion, potentially leaving USDT technically insolvent during a severe market downturn. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, disputed the concern, citing Tether's Q3 2025 attestation showing $181 billion in reserves against $174.45 billion in liabilities, resulting in a $6.8 billion surplus. The debate highlights ongoing scrutiny of Tether's reserve composition as it expands holdings in volatile assets while maintaining dominance with $185.5 billion in circulation.

Bitcoin's price trajectory in 2025 mirrors its 2022 bear market behavior with monthly correlation reaching 98%, according to network economist Timothy Peterson. The cryptocurrency trades approximately 36% below its all-time high as the year ends, contradicting earlier forecasts of strengthening momentum through December. Historical data indicates that negative November performance typically leads to December declines, though usually smaller in magnitude.

U.S.-listed cryptocurrency equities advanced Friday as prediction-market odds for a December Federal Reserve rate reduction surged to 87%, the month's highest level. Bitcoin miners including Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining posted gains, extending a five-day rally. Circle, the USDC stablecoin issuer, jumped nearly 10% in early trading.

Bitcoin has rebounded toward the $87,000 to $90,000 range after declining from $106,000 to $80,600 over 10 days. While whale holders with over 10,000 BTC continue selling, mid-sized holders in the 10–1,000 BTC range are accumulating. Data shows demand from accumulator addresses reached 365,000 BTC on November 23, up from 254,000 BTC on November 1.