Bitcoin whale holdings have risen to 3.09 million BTC, the highest level in six months, returning to levels seen before the latest market correction.

Blockchain data shows a transfer of 674 BTC, valued at $51,330,881, from an unidentified wallet to Coinbase.

Bitcoin traders are fixated on the Federal Reserve, but this week's more decisive signal may come from U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year yield has spent April in one of its tightest ranges of the year, just as a heavy run of macro releases arrives. With Bitcoin's rebound increasingly tied to renewed institutional inflows and the assumption that liquidity conditions will not tighten again, a break in bonds could steer crypto's next move even without a crypto-specific catalyst. FRED data show the 10-year yield held between 4.26% and 4.35% from Apr. 1 through Apr. 24, ending Apr. 24 at 4.31%. Barron's flagged the narrowest Bollinger Band compression since Jan. 16, while Reuters' technical view places the yield inside a broader symmetrical triangle, a pattern that often precedes a sharp move. By Apr. 27, the yield had ticked back toward 4.32%, as commodity prices and geopolitical risks fed inflation expectations—factors that can push rates in ways the Fed does not directly control. The potential trigger is a tight two-day macro cluster: the FOMC meets Apr. 28–29; on Apr. 30 the BEA releases the advance first-quarter GDP estimate along with March Personal Income and Outlays and the PCE deflator, and the Employment Cost Index also prints that morning. Three major readings in two days are enough to shift Treasuries materially and, with them, the financial-conditions backdrop Bitcoin is leaning on. Institutional demand has been rebuilding into a fragile technical zone. CoinShares reported $1.2 billion of inflows into crypto investment products last week—the fourth straight positive week and the third consecutive week above $1 billion. Of that, $933 million went to Bitcoin and $192 million to Ethereum, lifting total assets under management to $155 billion. Farside Investors' daily figures show U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged nine consecutive positive sessions from Apr. 14 to Apr. 24, totaling more than $2 billion of inflows. The risk is timing: buyers may be returning just as the bond market is about to pick a direction. CoinShares' Mar. 23 note highlighted how quickly flows can reverse when rates reprice: weekly inflows slowed sharply and crypto products saw $405 million of post-FOMC outflows once markets interpreted that meeting as a hawkish pause. That episode matters again as Bitcoin approaches the $80,000 area with the same unresolved variable—what Treasuries do next. On-chain data underline why the next leg may be sensitive. Glassnode's Apr. 22 update said Bitcoin reclaimed the True Market Mean at $78,100, while the short-term holder cost basis sits at $80,100 as the immediate resistance ceiling. ETF flows have turned modestly positive again and spot demand shows early recovery, but short-term holder realized profit has jumped to $4.4 million per hour. Glassnode also noted implied and realized volatility have compressed, leaving little premium in options pricing. Key levels are now clearly defined. Sustained demand through $80,100 would signal institutional buying is deep enough to absorb profit-taking. A rejection that pushes BTC back toward $78,100 would make the True Market Mean the last major support before Glassnode's $75,000 downside-acceleration zone comes into view. Two rate-driven outcomes frame the week. A bullish setup would be yields moving lower: if the 10-year closes below the April floor near 4.26% and breaks Reuters' 4.23% technical pivot, the macro backdrop becomes more supportive for risk assets. Lower yields ease discount-rate pressure and favor liquidity trades, giving the recent $1.2 billion weekly inflow pace a better chance of pushing BTC through $80,100 and holding. The October 2025 peak AUM of $263 billion remains the benchmark for how much institutional re-engagement could still grow. A bearish setup would be yields breaking higher: if the 10-year moves above 4.35% and heads toward Reuters' 4.6% upside resolution area, financial conditions tighten as Bitcoin presses into a profit-heavy zone where more than 54% of recent buyers are in the green. BTC could stall at $80,100, profit-taking could intensify from the $4.4 million-per-hour pace, and sellers could test $78,100. A break there would put $75,000 in play, reframing the inflow streak as capital that arrived before the bond market "closed the door". In short, Bitcoin's next move may originate in the Treasury market. Institutional demand has returned across multiple channels, but it is arriving before bonds have clarified whether macro conditions will help or hinder. Falling yields would materially improve the odds of clearing $80,000 and validate the institutional thesis; rising yields would shift the deciding factor to duration repricing and could sink the rally on macro pressure alone.

Block said it added 114 bitcoin during the first quarter, lifting its corporate treasury to 8,997 BTC—just under 9,000 BTC—valued at about $691 million at recent prices. The company also disclosed that, including customer balances, it held 28,355 BTC as of March 2026. Of that total, roughly 19,357 BTC were held on behalf of customers rather than as corporate treasury assets, drawing a clearer line between proprietary exposure and custody tied to its platform. Alongside the update, Block said it plans to publish regular third-party reports related to its bitcoin holdings, signaling a stronger focus on transparency and formal verification. The move suggests the company is positioning its bitcoin strategy less around headline accumulation and more around disciplined reporting and balance-sheet clarity.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $263 million in net outflows on Tuesday, ending a nine-day run of inflows just ahead of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Bitcoin was trading below $77,000 as ETF demand briefly cooled and traders grew more cautious into the Fed decision. Macro and geopolitical risks remain in focus. The broader rally has held, but market conviction is being tested. Analysts said conditions still look constructive, while noting the timing of the flow reversal could be significant.

Rep. Begich said the updated U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal has been rebranded as ARMA and is designed to formally recognize Bitcoin as a reserve asset. "We're trying to make sure that Bitcoin is treated like the reserve asset that it is."

Bitcoin's weekly realized losses rose to $892 million, more than offsetting $556.2 million in realized profits.

A White House adviser focused on cryptocurrency policy suggested the administration may be nearing a "breakthrough" related to establishing a U.S. bitcoin reserve, without providing details on timing or scope.

Bitcoin fell below $76,000, forcing the liquidation of $266 million in long positions.