Australia inflation slows to 3.8% in year to June, easing pressure for an RBA hike on 11 August
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Australia's June CPI eased to 3.8% y/y (from 4.0%), while trimmed-mean inflation was softer than expected, undercutting market pricing for an RBA hike at the Aug 11 meeting. The data is supportive for Australian duration (lower rate expectations) and reduces near-term policy tightening pressure. However, elevated homebuilding costs (+5.8% y/y) and sticky services inflation signal residual domestic inflation risks.
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Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed annual CPI inflation eased to 3.8% in June from 4%, while the core CPI annual rate rose to 3.6% but remained below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s prior 3.8% forecast. The figures weakened expectations that the RBA will raise rates at its 11 August policy meeting. The data also offered support to the Australian dollar and long-dated government bond prices. Housing construction costs, however, rose 5.8% year on year, the fastest pace in three years, pointing to lingering price pressure in parts of the economy.
