Bitcoin recovered to $110,000 this week after opening at $107,000, yet faces challenges maintaining momentum near all-time highs. Analysts at The Bull Theory suggest the traditional four-year cycle is transitioning to a five-year pattern. The next peak may occur around Q2 2026, driven by global liquidity dynamics and institutional accumulation.

Gold declined 6% this week following a 30% rally since August, lifting the BTC/gold ratio by 8%. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan suggests Bitcoin could replicate gold's 2025 price pattern once long-term holder selling exhausts. The analysis points to potential ETF inflow shifts favoring BTC if gold's pullback continues.

An independent Bitcoin miner validated block 920,440 on Thursday and earned $347,455 in total rewards. The miner operated solo mining infrastructure on an Umbrel server through Public Pool, receiving 3.125 BTC as the block subsidy plus 0.016 BTC in transaction fees. The achievement demonstrates that independent miners can still successfully validate blocks despite Bitcoin's rising global hash rate.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end would require "a heck of a lot of crazy stuff." He projected a more realistic range of $100,000 to $125,000 under normal market conditions. Bitcoin was trading around $107,000 at the time, meaning a move to $250,000 would require approximately a 130% surge within weeks.

Bitcoin rose 2.7% to $110,700 on Thursday following a presidential pardon for Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. BNB surged over 5% on the news. The rally extended to major cryptocurrencies including Ether, DOGE, and ADA, which gained 2-3%.

Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick said Bitcoin could temporarily fall below $100,000 due to escalating U.S.–China trade risks. Despite the near-term correction forecast, Kendrick characterized the potential drop as a buying opportunity. The bank maintains long-term targets of $200,000 by year-end and $500,000 by 2028, citing expanding global M2 money supply.

Bitcoin is testing a critical support level at $108,500, where 15% of BTC supply sits at a loss, according to Glassnode data. The cryptocurrency has fallen below the short-term holder cost basis of $113,100, a structure that historically signals mid-term bearish phases. Historical patterns indicate that failure to hold the $108,500 threshold could trigger a deeper correction toward $97,500, where 25% of supply would be underwater.

Bitcoin stabilized around $109,000 following two major regulatory developments. U.S. President Donald Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao on October 23, 2025, ending an 11-month legal process. The European Union imposed sanctions on Russian cryptocurrency exchanges and the ruble-backed stablecoin A7A5, targeting platforms allegedly linked to sanction evasion.