BoE’s Bailey rejects assumption of inevitable rate hike ahead of Sept 17 decision
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BoE Governor Bailey pushed back on the idea that rate hikes are inevitable, framing policy as contingent on economic and geopolitical developments. He noted markets embed a risk premium beyond the base policy path, tied to energy-price uncertainty. With only a small probability of a near-term hike and guidance emphasizing data dependence, UK rate expectations may stabilize, influencing sterling and front-end UK yield sensitivity into the Sept 17 decision.
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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told lawmakers on Tuesday that a rate increase is not inevitable and that policy decisions will depend on economic and geopolitical developments. He said markets have built in a risk premium that implies more tightening than the most likely policy path, reflecting concerns about higher energy prices, according to Reuters. Bailey and three other Monetary Policy Committee members largely reiterated their existing views ahead of the BoE’s Sept. 17 rate announcement. Market pricing points to a 25-basis-point hike by year-end and two additional increases before 2027.
