Trump Says U.S.-Iran Talks Start Tuesday, Claims Strait of Hormuz Understanding Reached

Good morning. It's Monday, August 3, 2026. Here's a fast look at the key macro, commodities, and futures headlines shaping markets. Top headlines 1) China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) issued price-compliance guidance for the photovoltaic sector. 2) Four agencies jointly rolled out 22 measures to strengthen governance at financial institutions. 3) A 2.5 million-ton PTA unit in East China will go offline for maintenance over the next two days due to unforeseen circumstances. 4) In Jinzhong, 20 coal mines have resumed operations, with combined capacity of 19.8 million tons. 5) The U.S. and Israel are weighing a possible land blockade against Iran. 6) The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE). 7) Trump said U.S.-Iran negotiations begin tomorrow and claimed an agreement is already in place regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Macro and policy - China's National Financial Regulatory Administration, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the CSRC, and the Ministry of Finance released the "Opinions on Improving Financial Institution Governance", outlining 22 measures. The document targets an essentially complete governance framework by 2029, with clearer accountability, aligned incentives and constraints, stronger risk controls, and more standardized, efficient operations. - The Daily Telegraph reported the U.S. and Israel are discussing a potential land blockade of Iran as part of options being considered by Trump and Netanyahu to raise economic pressure. - Shanghai Shipping Exchange data showed that as of July 31, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 3,205.97, up 143.02 points period-on-period. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell to 1,857.04, down 2.3%. - NDRC official Zhou Hongwei said an implementation plan for the 2026–2030 domestic-demand expansion strategy is being drafted on an expedited basis, with follow-on measures aimed at more forceful, concrete demand support. - National Bureau of Statistics data showed the manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.2% in July, while high-tech manufacturing remained in expansion. The decline was attributed to a high base from earlier growth and a seasonal slowdown in some industries; equipment and high-tech manufacturing continued to provide support. - Iran's Tasnim News Agency cited the Strait of Hormuz Authority as saying passage through the strait is no longer possible due to aggressive U.S. actions. It said applications will be reviewed and permits issued gradually once stability returns. - Fed's Lorie Logan said taking moderate action now reduces the risk of stronger moves later, adding she is inclined to raise rates by 25 basis points. - CCTV quoted U.S. President Trump as saying strikes on Iran were called off at the request of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran. He said Iran was aware of the scale of the planned attack, claimed an understanding already exists on the Strait of Hormuz, and said a denuclearization agreement would also be reached. Trump said talks will begin tomorrow afternoon U.S. time (Tuesday morning Beijing time). - The PBOC held its 2026 mid-year work conference and reiterated it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. Global futures: weekly close snapshot - Crude: Front-month WTI rose 3.84% to $86.80/bbl (week -2.81%, month +25.98%). Front-month Brent gained 4.79% to $91.04/bbl (week -0.7%, month +31.01%). - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.49% to $4,098.60/oz (week -0.79%, month flat). COMEX silver slid 2.10% to $57.77/oz (week -1.92%, month -3.58%). - LME base metals: tin +0.68% to $55,350.0/ton (week +2.92%, month +7.33%); zinc +0.50% to $3,640.0/ton (week +1.34%, month +2.49%); copper flat at $13,803.0/ton (week +1.16%, month +3.2%); aluminum -0.02% to $3,195.0/ton (week +1.12%, month +3.55%); nickel -0.09% to $17,255.0/ton (week -0.71%, month +5.94%); lead -0.79% to $1,880.5/ton (week -0.34%, month +0.29%). Metals and industrials - CSRC approved the registration of coke options at the DCE and said it will push the exchange to complete preparations to ensure a smooth launch and stable trading. - Mysteel: Jinzhong has 43 coking coal mines with combined capacity of 41.4 million tons. So far, 20 have resumed, totaling 19.8 million tons. Daily raw coal output is about 45,600 tons, around 67% of pre-shutdown levels. The remaining 24 are still offline, including mines that restarted and then halted again. - Qinyuan County, Changzhi: one additional mine is expected to restart on the afternoon of July 31, with approved capacity of 900,000 tons, producing high-sulfur lean coal. After restarting, daily raw coal output is expected to be about two-thirds lower than before. Two mines in the county have already resumed, with combined approved capacity of 3.6 million tons; others are preparing for restart inspections. - Australia: a union said workers at BHP's Port Hedland iron ore operations plan strike action this week, including a 24-hour loading ban and work stoppages. The Port Workers Union represents three unions, including the Western Australian Mining Workers Union and workers in the power and manufacturing sectors. - Gangyin Ecommerce: total urban steel inventory stands at 9.9632 million metric tons, up 0.049 million metric tons week-on-week. Construction steel inventory is 5.6815 million metric tons, down 0.164 million metric tons week-on-week. Agriculture - Mysteel: China's soybean crush in Week 31 of 2026 was 2.3258 million tons, down 18,200 tons week-on-week. Operating rate was 64.04%. Week 32 crush is estimated at 2.3586 million tons, up 32,800 tons from Week 31 actual, with operating rate estimated at 64.95% (+0.91 percentage points). - China Cotton Reserve Information Center: last week, China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. listed 400,84.0910 tons of reserve cotton; traded volume was 400,84.0910 tons, with a 100% trading rate. Average成交 price was RMB 17,100.87/ton, equivalent to RMB 17,738.02/ton at standard grade (3128), with an average premium of RMB 1,563.02/ton. Highest price was RMB 17,980/ton; lowest was RMB 16,060/ton. - ITS: Malaysia's palm oil exports for July 1–31 were 1,602,475 tons, up 19.51% from 1,340,842 tons in the same period last month. - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports for July 1–31 were 1,428,275 tons, up 12.06% from 1,274,506 tons in the same period last month. - Hog margins (week ending July 31): self-raised pigs lost RMB 237.90/head vs RMB 190.30/head on July 24; purchased piglets lost RMB 168.12/head vs RMB 148.10/head on July 24. - Reuters survey (11 traders/analysts): ICE raw sugar futures are expected to be about 4% higher by year-end, with a median forecast of 15.00 cents/lb. - USDA: a private exporter reported selling 2.52 million metric tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. - India Meteorological Department: August monsoon rainfall could be 94% below the average recorded in July, raising concerns over crop output and growth. Energy and chemicals - East China methanol port inventory was 378,300 metric tons as of July 30, up from 238,600 metric tons on July 23 (+139,700 metric tons). - Longzhong Information: a 2.5 million-ton PTA unit in East China will shut for maintenance over the next two days due to unforeseen circumstances; restart timing is TBD. - NDRC: as of 24:00 on July 31, China raised retail price ceilings for gasoline and diesel by RMB 685/ton and RMB 655/ton. Average nationwide increases: Grade 92 gasoline +RMB 0.54/L, Grade 95 gasoline +RMB 0.57/L, Grade 0 diesel +RMB 0.56/L. A 50-liter fill-up of Grade 92 now costs about RMB 27 more. - SMM: starting July 31, a major Shandong alumina producer cut its procurement price for ion-exchange membrane liquid caustic soda by RMB 10/ton to RMB 580/ton (two-invoice ex-factory), equivalent to about RMB 1,813/ton on a pure basis. - OPEC+ agreed to raise September production quotas by 188,000 barrels/day, fully offsetting the 2023 production cuts. Metals and new materials - On July 31, SAMR conducted price-compliance guidance for the PV industry in Yancheng, Jiangsu, saying it will use reminders, compliance talks, and administrative guidance to encourage standardized price competition. Firms accused of severely disrupting market order and failing to rectify after warnings will face strict legal action. - Mysteel: as of July, lithium ore inventory at 19 overseas mining lithium salt producers totaled 459,000 metric tons, up 0.1 million metric tons month-on-month. Purchases increased in July and trader inventories continued to shift to overseas producers. Supply security diverged between leading and smaller producers; some smaller players stopped production after running down ore stocks. Overall inventories remained broadly stable. - Polysilicon: as of July 31, weekly average price for N-type dense polysilicon was RMB 32.5/kg versus production cost of RMB 45/kg, implying a net loss of RMB 12.5/kg. The weekly average price fell RMB 0.4/kg week-on-week; costs fell RMB 0.1/kg, with segment net profit down RMB 0.3/kg. - SMM: Indonesian rare-earth-related inspection policies recently constrained shipments of high-nickel pig iron from Indonesian ports. LS inspection reports are being issued in batches, and releases began midweek. The disruption is viewed as short-term with limited impact on overall high-nickel pig iron supply-demand. Analyst views (selected) - Everbright Futures: Lithium carbonate's rebound last week was driven largely by short covering on production-cut and inventory-drawdown headlines, but sentiment flipped quickly. The market is focusing more on forward supply than current output. With delivery approaching and warehouse receipts a concern (inventory 38,981 tons as of July 30, down 334 tons that day), prices may stay rangebound with a weak bias. Key support sits near the cost line of higher-cost capacity. A major medium-term variable comes after late August as Zimbabwe ore shipments increase, Jiexiawo restarts, and maintenance-related capacity returns, potentially easing supply; weaker-than-expected peak-season demand could add downside. - Xinhu Futures: Expectations for domestic coal mine restarts strengthened after news that a mine in Qinyuan, Changzhi is resuming production, lifting August supply expectations. Far-month coking coal contracts weakened and the contango structure deepened, with the spread shifting from a C-structure to a Back structure. Demand remains soft as steel conditions are weak and pig iron output has slipped to around 2.35 million tons this week. With limited new signals on property and infrastructure stimulus from a key year-end meeting, the market continues to reprice the black complex lower. The firm cautioned against early bottom-fishing and suggested taking partial profits on shorts at lower levels, while noting the next two weeks may be a process of finding an emotional and fundamental bottom. Key calendar: data and events 1) Aug 3, 9:45 (China): July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 2) Aug 3, 22:00 (U.S.): July ISM Manufacturing PMI 3) Aug 4, 3:00 (U.S.): USDA Oilseeds Crush Report 4) U.S. EIA crude inventories (week ended Jul 31) 5) Aug 6, 20:30 (U.S.): USDA weekly export sales (week ended Jul 30) 6) Aug 6, 20:30 (U.S.): initial jobless claims (week ended Aug 1) 7) Aug 7 (China, time TBA): July trade data and key commodity figures 8) Aug 7 (time TBA): FAO monthly report 9) Aug 7, 20:30 (U.S.): July nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate 10) Aug 9, 9:30 (China): July CPI and PPI