Fed seen raising rates 25 bps in September with 69.4% odds ahead of U.S. CPI

BlockBeats reports that U.S. August CPI data is due in about an hour on Sept. 11, a release that could shape expectations for whether the Federal Reserve moves with its first rate increase in more than three years. CME FedWatch data shows markets pricing a 30.6% chance the Fed holds rates steady at this month's meeting, versus a 69.4% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. The next Fed policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 16 (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Sept. 17). The U.S. Department of Labor will publish August CPI at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight. Consensus forecasts call for headline CPI to rise 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year. The figures are widely viewed as a key input for next week's Fed decision on whether to begin tightening for the first time in more than three years. The Fed's most recent rate hike was on July 26, 2023, when it raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 5.25%–5.50%. Traders are especially focused on the month-over-month core CPI print. Analysts suggest a 0.2% gain could support a hold, while a 0.4% reading may materially tilt expectations toward a hike. A 0.3% result would likely shift attention to unrounded details and key components including housing, services, and core goods.