Arthur Hayes Says a Fresh Bitcoin Bull Run Is Underway

CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin's jump above $80,000 on Aug. 25 prompted BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes to declare that a new bull market has begun. Hayes tied the move to the U.S. Treasury's decision to lift the ceiling on certain long-dated Treasury buyback operations, arguing that markets are positioning for easier liquidity. Bitcoin traded above $81,000 during the rally, well above the sub-$65,000 levels seen before the Treasury outlined changes to its repurchase framework. The move marked one of the strongest weekly advances in recent months. The report cautioned that timing alone does not prove the buyback change caused the rally. Other catalysts cited include continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, short covering in derivatives, and a softer U.S. dollar. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $517 million on Aug. 19. After BTC cleared $71,000, liquidation-driven flows added fuel to the upside. Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries fell initially before clawing back part of the decline. In a post published Aug. 25, Hayes said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's decision to raise the cap on long-term Treasury repurchase volume could pressure long-term yields lower, lift the appeal of risk assets and steer capital toward Bitcoin. The U.S. Treasury confirmed that from Sept. 9, 2026, to Nov. 4, 2026, the per-operation limit for certain long-term, liquidity-supporting repurchase agreements will rise from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Hayes described the buybacks as a liquidity signal that could add U.S. dollar liquidity. The Treasury, though, frames the tool as a market-function measure designed to improve liquidity in outstanding issues and manage cash balances, not as monetary stimulus. The report said expectations remain a major part of how markets are interpreting the program. CoinDesk noted that when Hayes made his comments, the higher cap had not yet taken effect, with implementation scheduled to begin in September. The Treasury previously projected third-quarter borrowing of $739 billion and assumed a Treasury General Account cash balance of $950 billion by the end of September. Hayes also pointed to the TGA as a potential funding source, but the U.S. government has not signaled it will deploy the full balance or commit $1 trillion for bond buybacks, leaving that view speculative. Separately, the New York Fed is carrying out reserve-management purchases of around $10 billion. The report emphasized this is aimed at keeping bank reserves ample and is not part of the Treasury's repurchase program. Hayes said his family office, Maelstrom, has shifted to what he called a "maximum risk" posture, with core exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethena and Ether.fi. He did not provide position sizes or independently verifiable holdings, and warned that even if prices keep rising, a sharp correction remains possible. The report pointed to Sept. 9 as the next key date, when the higher cap on long-term Treasury repo operations is set to take effect. After that, markets can better assess how actual repo volumes, Treasury yields, the Treasury General Account balance and Bitcoin's price action move together.