Bernstein: USDC supply jumps by $1.7B in late August; Circle positioned to benefit from renewed "digital dollar" growth

ChainThink, citing a Bernstein research note, said USDC supply increased by about $1.7 billion in the final week of August, ending a six-month stretch of mostly flat-to-declining issuance. Circle shares have rebounded 42% from their drop sparked by worries about OUSD competition. Bernstein reiterated an "Outperform" rating on Circle and kept its $140 price target, implying 59% upside from current levels. The firm expects a fresh stablecoin expansion cycle to be driven by four forces: the macro rate backdrop, growth of on-chain capital markets, broader adoption of stablecoin payments, and AI agent payments. Bernstein also highlighted upcoming infrastructure and institutional participation. The ARC blockchain is slated to launch on September 16, with BlackRock, DTCC, Mastercard, and Visa participating as founding validator nodes. DTCC plans to tokenize custody-held assets on-chain, and Marex has completed its first derivatives margin transaction backed by a stablecoin. On activity trends, Bernstein estimates adjusted stablecoin trading volume reached roughly $11 trillion in 2025. By July 2026, the annualized run-rate was about $17 trillion, up 60% year over year. USDC's market share rose from 40% to above 60%. The x402 protocol processed about 20 million transactions in August, with USDC representing more than 99% of volume.