Bitcoin is trading slightly above $78,000 after an 11% weekly decline, with daily volume around $52 billion amid elevated volatility. Social and on-chain metrics show extreme fear, mounting losses for short-term holders, and a market still searching for a durable bottom while long-term investors remain largely unaffected.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $562 million in net inflows on February 2 after a run of redemptions, taking cumulative net inflows to $55.57 billion. Total ETF net assets stood at $100.38 billion, and daily trading value climbed to $7.68 billion as demand concentrated in the largest vehicles, led by funds from BlackRock and Fidelity.

Bitcoin's downturn traces back to Oct. 10, 2025, when a derivatives washout forced roughly $19 billion in futures liquidations as prices fell. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost says open interest collapsed by about 70,000 BTC that day, resetting months of leverage and leaving speculation subdued amid weaker spot volumes and declining stablecoin liquidity.

On February 3, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez said a bearish Bitcoin pattern has resurfaced after BTC rebounded 5.64% from a February 2 low near $74,000 to $78,173. He highlighted the 100-week SMA at $87,500 and described the 200-week SMA at $57,600, projecting a move toward $50,000–$56,000 by March or April, citing past 55%, 47%, and 58% declines.

Analysts offered conflicting views on Bitcoin after the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI moved back above 50 for the first time since 2022. Andre Dragosch framed the backdrop as "reflation" and supportive for BTC, while Michaël van de Poppe and Titan of Crypto cautioned that current cycle dynamics and a possible bearish divergence could temper upside.

Tether has introduced open-source mining libraries aimed at improving efficiency for WhatsMiner, Avalon, and Antminer rigs, making Bitcoin hashrate optimization more accessible. At the same time, Bitcoin Hyper is presenting itself as a Bitcoin Layer 2 using the Solana Virtual Machine, combining Bitcoin settlement with high-speed execution. The project's presale has surpassed $31M, and large on-chain purchases suggest growing interest, though participation in such tokens involves significant risk.

After a sharp weekend drop below $75,000, Bitcoin bounced back toward $79,000 on Tuesday, supported by renewed net inflows of about $561.9 million into US spot ETFs. Despite this short-term relief and broader altcoin gains, on-chain indicators showing roughly 44% of supply in loss suggest mounting structural weakness and the risk of an extended bear phase.

Arizona officials have intensified alerts over cryptocurrency ATM fraud after losses reached more than $177 million in 2024. A 2025 state law mandates multilingual warnings, 24/7 live support, and daily caps of $2,000 for new users and $10,500 for existing users. Nationwide figures indicate rising losses and complaints, with older adults heavily affected.