Bitcoin’s first mining difficulty adjustment of 2026 reduced the metric to 146.4 trillion, offering miners a brief improvement in conditions after a challenging 2025. Average block times of about 9.88 minutes now point to a likely increase toward roughly 148.2 trillion at the next recalibration expected on January 22, while profitability remains under pressure amid elevated competition, weaker prices and rising costs.

Bitcoin's mining difficulty eased in the first 2026 adjustment, slipping to 146.4 trillion on Thursday. The next recalibration is projected for Jan. 22, 2026 at about 04:08 UTC, with estimates pointing to 148.20T as average block times run at 9.88 minutes. Despite the brief relief, miners' profitability remains thin after 2025's margin squeeze.

Jan3 founder Samson Mow has outlined five ambitious Bitcoin forecasts for 2026, including a claim that Tesla CEO Elon Musk will aggressively increase his Bitcoin exposure. Mow also expects BTC to climb to about $1.33 million that year, far above more moderate outlooks from other crypto executives.

On January 11, 2024, the U.S. SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, a landmark step that expands regulated access to Bitcoin for institutional investors. The decision comes 15 years after Hal Finney's "Running bitcoin" tweet and coincides with Bitcoin trading at $90,673.58 on January 11, 2026. These ETFs and the recent market data together highlight Bitcoin's shift from a niche experiment to a major financial asset class.

Bitcoin has recently traded in a tight band between $90,000 and $93,000, with price action showing little decisive movement. Data indicates spot market inflows have dropped to a six-week low, while institutional investors have shifted from net buying to selling hundreds of millions of dollars in BTC. Despite weak broader sentiment, long-term holders remain largely inactive, helping to limit deeper downside for the cryptocurrency.

A Bitcoin miner who earned rewards in 2010 has transferred 2,000 BTC, valued at nearly $200 million at prices close to $100,000 per coin, to Coinbase after 15 years of inactivity. On-chain data shows multiple whale selling waves since late 2024, including an 80,000 BTC move in July 2025 and several other dormant wallets reactivating. Analysts are debating whether these sales and cooling ETF inflows will disrupt Bitcoin’s historical four‑year cycle as institutional demand continues to expand.

On January 10, 2009, early Bitcoin contributor Hal Finney posted the brief message "Running Bitcoin," signaling the first publicly known node operating beyond the project's creator. He later received Bitcoin's first transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto, and over time his post has come to represent a key moment in the network's early development. Ongoing debate about whether Finney could have been Satoshi has been challenged by technical details and timelines described by other Bitcoin developers.

Bitcoin is trading within a tight range, with support around $90,500–$88,200 and a more defined zone at $90,588–$88,280. A daily close above $94,130, and later $98,200–$107,500 with $107,500 as a higher‑high trigger, would bolster the bullish case. Light weekend volume keeps $87,600 and $96,500 in focus as key levels.