Trading

On April 3, analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin retail participation hit a record low, with transactions under 1 BTC dropping sharply. Using Binance data, the 30-day moving average of retail BTC inflows was reported at 332 BTC, the lowest since the exchange launched in 2017. The post attributed the decline to mixed factors, including ETF adoption since January 2024 and some capital rotation into other markets.

Bitcoin could trigger a large short squeeze if price climbs 7.5% from about $67,100 to $72,000, a move that would liquidate an estimated $2.5 billion in BTC futures shorts. Bears have added positions since March 25 amid war-driven oil strength and other macro pressures, while a ceasefire or renewed US-listed Bitcoin ETF inflows could help push BTC back toward $72,000.

Trader and commentator Scott Melker says the current Bitcoin drawdown should be viewed as a deep bull-market dip rather than a classic bear market, after BTC peaked at $126K in October 2025. He points to four bottom-type signals he tracks—weekly RSI extremes, an all-time-low Fear & Greed reading, record "Bitcoin going to zero" search interest, and price nearing the 200-week moving average—while arguing altcoin liquidity has been pulled into prediction markets.

On April 4, 2026, Bitcoin's social sentiment fell to its most fearful level since Feb. 28, even as the price traded around $67,160 with RSI near 60 and above the 50-day SMA. Over the prior 72 hours, whale wallets increased holdings from 4.21M to 4.23M BTC, a net gain of about 10,000 BTC, while large exchange inflows also hit their highest level since April 2024.

A technical read shared on April 2 suggests XRP could face a sharp pullback after losing the $1.31 support and struggling to defend $1.30. The scenario outlines a potential 33% decline, with downside targets first projected at $1.05–$1.09 and a deeper move potentially reaching $0.87 before any broader recovery attempt.

Bitcoin hovered just above $66,900 ahead of the Good Friday long weekend as U.S. spot ETF trading and CME futures were set to pause, potentially thinning liquidity. March 2026 spot ETF inflows totaled $1.32 billion, but with those channels offline, attention shifts to whether BTC can defend the $65,000 area during lower-volume trading.

Crypto entered Q2 after a weak Q1, with total market cap down nearly 21% and about $1.5 trillion erased over the past six months. Trump’s weekend post warning of a potentially severe attack on Iran’s infrastructure, alongside oil’s Q1 surge of nearly 70%, is being framed as a catalyst that could amplify volatility and liquidation risk when markets reopen Monday.

Chainlink carried out its routine quarterly token unlock, releasing nearly 19 million LINK and triggering notable on-chain transfers. Roughly $165 million in LINK moved from non-circulating wallets, including about 14.37 million LINK to Binance and 4.62 million LINK to a multi-signature wallet. After the unlock, LINK traded near $8.64 with 24-hour volume above $343 million, while whale-wallet counts continued rising into April 2026.

BNB revisited its February 6 swing low at $570 within the past 24 hours, raising concerns that sellers still control momentum. During the drop to $570, Open Interest climbed from $530 million to $560 million even as spot CVD trended lower over the past week. Key levels highlighted were $577 and $604, with $530 outlined as the next downside area if support gives way.

XRP is trading above $1.30 again after briefly losing the level for several hours yesterday before buyers pushed it back. A report on Binance activity says XRP deposits and withdrawals on the exchange have fallen to their lowest point since 2025, with roughly 310,500 deposits and about 329,400 withdrawals over the past 30 days. The analysis frames the rebound as occurring in a thinner market, while price remains constrained between roughly $1.20 and $1.50.