Fed December Rate-Cut Odds Jump to 80% as Dovish Officials Gain Upper Hand

Market pricing now shows roughly 80% odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December meeting, up from approximately 30% just days earlier, Jin10 reports citing market data. The shift followed delayed September employment data released last week and comments from New York Fed President John Williams on Friday, who indicated room for rate cuts "in the near term" amid labor market softness. Futures contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark rate have seen a sharp increase in open interest over the past three trading sessions, with January contracts posting consecutive daily volume records last week. "There's serious division within the Fed, but it appears doves have overwhelmed hawks," said Tracy Chen, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management.