Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield has climbed to around 2.39% as of April 3, 2026, hovering near the 2.40% mark and reaching levels last seen in July 1997. The move reflects renewed inflation concerns and firm wage growth, strengthening market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue tightening policy. After keeping borrowing costs ultralow for more than two decades, the BOJ has shifted direction since 2024. The 10-year yield has trended higher and accelerated in early 2026 following multiple increases in the short-term policy rate, most recently to 0.75%. The central bank has also exited its yield curve control (YCC) framework and reduced bond purchases, allowing longer-term yields to reprice more freely. Wage gains are reinforcing the tightening narrative. Early indications from Japan's 2026 Shunto negotiations point to an average pay rise of 5.26%, the strongest in 35 years and the third consecutive year above 5%. Markets are increasingly positioning for additional rate hikes, with overnight index swaps implying the policy rate could move toward 1.0% to 1.25% by year-end. Traders are also assigning a high probability to another increase at the April 27–28 policy meeting. Inflation signals remain mixed but sticky beneath the surface. Tokyo's core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7% year-on-year in March 2026, slightly under the BOJ's 2% target, while inflation excluding both food and energy remains above 2%. Oil-price-driven pressures are adding to concerns that underlying price momentum is not fading. The sharp rise in Japanese yields is spilling into global risk markets through the yen carry trade. As funding costs climb, the long-standing strategy of borrowing low-yielding yen to buy higher-yielding assets is unwinding more quickly, tightening liquidity conditions that have supported risk-taking. Crypto markets are feeling the impact. Higher yen borrowing costs are prompting investors to reduce leveraged exposure across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and smaller altcoins, contributing to broader deleveraging. Futures markets have begun to reflect the shift, with open interest in BTC and ETH contracts declining, while smaller tokens are seeing more pronounced volatility as leveraged flows retreat. If Japanese yields continue to rise, the associated liquidity squeeze could extend downside pressure across the broader crypto complex. Disclaimer: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses arising from the use of the content, products, or services referenced. Readers should exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

Donald Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, urging Tehran to either reach a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz, warning of "devastating consequences" if it does not comply. The message was posted publicly on Truth Social, where Trump said "all Hell will reign down on them" if Iran misses the deadline. Trump said the warning follows an earlier 10-day window he had given Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints. U.S.-Iran tensions have intensified in recent weeks.

April 4 (UTC+8) — Nick Timiraos, often dubbed the Federal Reserve's "voice," reported that U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in March, rebounding from February's steep drop. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Beneath the headline gains, the report showed softer momentum. Wage growth for typical workers slowed to its weakest year-over-year pace since the post-pandemic recovery began five years ago. Looking past month-to-month volatility, the two-month average points to a clearer trend: payrolls are expanding by only about 22,500 jobs per month. That pace would have been alarming two years ago; now it may still fall within what policymakers view as acceptable. Fed officials are still working to explain the shift. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly wrote Friday: "It is not easy to convince the public that an economy with zero job growth can still be consistent with full employment." The backdrop is increasingly fragile as new supply shocks loom. If the Iran conflict drags on and higher fuel costs or commodity shortages pressure businesses and consumers, the labor market may have little buffer to absorb the hit. Persistent inflation worries could also weaken confidence in rate cuts, further narrowing the Fed's room to maneuver. Source: ChainCatcher; ME News

Huoxing Finance reported that Nick Timiraos, often dubbed the Fed's "spokesperson," said on April 4 that the U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, rebounding from February's steep slowdown. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. The report's details were more mixed. Pay gains for typical workers cooled, posting the weakest year-over-year increase since the five-year, post-pandemic recovery began. Smoothing out two unusually volatile months, the underlying pace looks far softer: average monthly job growth was about 22,500. Timiraos noted that a figure like that would have triggered concern two years ago; now it may still be viewed as acceptable, even as Fed officials struggle to explain the shift. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly wrote Friday: "It is not easy to get the public to understand that an economy with zero job growth can still be consistent with full employment." He also warned the backdrop is becoming more fragile amid fresh supply shocks. If the Iran conflict drags on and elevated fuel costs or commodity shortages squeeze businesses and households, the labor market may have little cushion to absorb the hit. At the same time, persistent inflation worries could weaken confidence in rate cuts, narrowing the Fed's room to maneuver.

BIG: The United States has doubled its shipping protection coverage in the Strait of Hormuz to $40 billion.

Leap Wallet said it will shut down its entire product lineup on May 28, taking offline its browser extension, iOS and Android apps, and web app. The company's Swapfast exchange platform and Cosmos Hub Validator are also set to go dark. Leap launched in 2022 within the Terra ecosystem and later expanded to support more than 100 chains. The team said the decision was "not made lightly" and did not provide additional details.

Global central banks were net buyers of 19 tonnes of gold in February 2026, according to the World Gold Council, accelerating from 5 tonnes in January but still below the 2025 monthly average of 26 tonnes. The report highlighted continued buying streaks among several institutions. The Czech Republic has recorded net gold purchases for 36 consecutive months, while China has increased its gold reserves for 16 straight months. On price outlook, Goldman Sachs expects gold could climb to $5,400 per ounce by year-end. UBS sees a target of $5,900 per ounce by early 2027.

Marex Group Plc has issued what Bloomberg describes as the world's first bond-like note linked to a prediction market outcome. Under the terms, investors will earn a 7% coupon if Nvidia Corp. remains the world's largest company by market capitalization one year from issuance. If it does not, investors receive their full principal back, forfeiting only the potential interest. The deal size is about $10 million. The notes were sold to institutional clients in Switzerland and are restricted to jurisdictions outside the U.S. due to regulatory considerations. Bloomberg said Marex can hedge the exposure dynamically using prediction-market venues such as Kalshi. The structure is seen as another effort by Wall Street firms to package prediction-market signals into compliant products that offer traditional institutions a lower-risk way to participate.

Binance recorded about $4.90 trillion in crypto derivatives volume in Q1 2026, according to Coinglass's Q1 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Share Research Report. The figure translates to a 34.9% share across the world's top 10 exchanges. Total crypto trading volume for the quarter reached roughly $20.57 trillion. Spot trading accounted for $1.94 trillion, while derivatives activity totaled $18.63 trillion, putting the derivatives-to-spot ratio at about 9.6x.