CryptoQuant Risk Model Shows Bitcoin in High Correction Risk Zone Near 60 Threshold

Bitcoin remains in a high-risk zone as CryptoQuant's multi-indicator risk avoidance oscillator approaches the 60 threshold, a level historically associated with market corrections, despite recent price recovery. The model incorporates six metrics including downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market cap performance to assess market vulnerability. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr notes the profit-loss score has declined to -3, reflecting extreme concentration of loss-making UTXOs, a level historically aligned with bear market phases. The current -32% drawdown exceeds typical cycle corrections of -20% to -25% but falls short of panic-selling thresholds of -50% to -70%, placing Bitcoin in a fragile middle ground, Adler said, adding that downside risks remain elevated unless macro conditions and on-chain profitability metrics improve, even if prices stabilize near $90,000.