Justin Drake Sees 10% "Q-day" Risk by 2032 as Quantum Research Advances

Bitcoin security researcher Justin Drake said on March 31 that two new quantum-computing papers increased his estimate of a "Q-day" to a 10% chance by 2032, a point when widely used cryptography could be broken. He argued the work reduces the resources needed for attacks based on Shor's algorithm and could, in best cases, shrink key-cracking time to minutes, though the threat remains theoretical for now.