Money markets price in ECB rate hikes by end‑2026 as Polymarket bets on unchanged policy

By December 10 2025, money market pricing signalled European Central Bank rate hikes by the end of 2026, while Polymarket traders were still largely betting on no change in policy, according to market data. Swaps implied 13 basis points of tightening and German 5‑year yields rose to 2.49%, even as Polymarket showed around 84% odds that the ECB would not raise rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde has defended the current 2% level and pointed to a potentially more positive economic outlook that could support later rate increases.