1j yang laluInforma Global Markets calls December 11 FOMC rate decision mildly dovish as hawks yield in voteInforma Global Markets described the December 11 FOMC decision as "mildly dovish," noting only two voting members opposed rate cuts and backed keeping interest rates unchanged, BlockBeats reports. The firm said Wall Street had braced for a tougher stance from inflation-focused hawkish voters, but those members ultimately yielded when casting their votes.1j yang laluPowell Says Rate Hike Not the Base Case as Fed Signals Short-Term Hold on PolicyFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Dec. 11 that another rate hike is unlikely to be the Fed's next move, based on the central bank policymakers' new projections, BlockBeats reports citing Jin10. Powell stated he does not think a rate increase is anyone's baseline expectation at this point. He also indicated that interest rates are likely to be kept unchanged in the near term.2j yang laluAnalyst expects Fed to cut rates by 100 bps in 2025 despite hawkish signals in dot plotAnalyst Anna Wong said on Dec. 11 that the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement and projections were on balance dovish despite some hawkish undertones, BlockBeats and Jin10 report. The Federal Open Market Committee sharply revised up its growth outlook, lowered inflation forecasts, kept the dot plot unchanged and announced the start of reserve-management purchases, while signaling a preference for keeping rate cuts on hold for longer. Wong expects the Fed to cut rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2025, citing an outlook for weaker wage growth and no clear signs of inflation re-accelerating in the first half of 2026, even though the dot plot points to only one rate cut in 2026 versus two expected by markets.2j yang laluB. Riley Strategist Says Fed Dot Plot Signals Stronger Hawkish Stance Than Dissenting VotesB. Riley Wealth Chief Market Strategist Art Hogan described the Fed's Dec. 11 rate cut as "definitely hawkish," BlockBeats reports. While two committee members dissented in favor of holding rates steady, the dot-plot projections revealed six policymakers expected no cut at all, Hogan said. He noted the dot plot conveyed a stronger hawkish message than the two public dissenters and effectively raised the threshold for another rate cut at the next meeting.2j yang laluFed Chair Powell Says Inflation Risks Tilted Upward, Policy Path Carries RiskFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Dec. 11 that inflation risks are skewed to the upside and there is no risk-free path for monetary policy, BlockBeats reports. Powell noted the balance of risks has shifted in recent months.2j yang laluPowell: US economy expanding moderately as labor demand cools, September data showFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Dec. 11 that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with September data showing a small rise in unemployment and a significant slowdown in job growth, BlockBeats reports. He added that labor demand has clearly cooled and overall labor market dynamism has weakened slightly.2j yang laluCME FedWatch Shows 73.4% Probability of No Rate Change in JanuaryCME FedWatch data on Dec. 11 show a 26.6% probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in January, with a 73.4% chance of no change, BlockBeats reports. The tool indicates a 39.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis-point cut by March, a 53.4% chance rates remain unchanged by then, and a 7.3% probability of a total 50 basis-point reduction.2j yang laluFed Dot Plot Dec. 11: 6 Officials Hold Rates, 12 Back 25 Basis Points, 1 Supports 50 Basis PointsThe Federal Reserve dot plot released on Dec. 11 showed 6 of 19 officials favored holding rates, 12 supported a 25 basis points cut, and 1 backed a 50 basis points reduction, BlockBeats and Jin10 report. Among the six holding rates, two are 2025 voters: Schmid and Goolsbee. The 50 basis points view was held by Federal Reserve Governor Bowman.2j yang laluFed Chair Jerome Powell to Hold Monetary Policy Press Conference on Dec. 11Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference on Dec. 11, BlockBeats reports. The press event is scheduled to begin in five minutes.2j yang laluFed officials split after third straight rate cut as stagflation-style risks emerge and Powell's term nears endThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third consecutive time, but officials remain sharply divided over whether inflation or the labor market poses the greater risk, BlockBeats reports citing Nick Timiraos on Dec. 11. Persistent price pressures alongside a cooling labor market are creating a trade-off the Fed has not faced in decades, with some observers drawing comparisons to the 1970s stagflation era when stop-and-go policy allowed high inflation to become entrenched. Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May and who will preside over only three more rate-setting meetings, may ultimately determine the policy path. Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, said that as rates approach neutral, each additional cut risks losing support from more participants and will require data to persuade them to back further easing.
