1 giờ trước
Bitcoin stuck between $60K and $70K as volatility fades and catalysts remain scarce
Bitcoin continues to trade in a broad $60,000–$70,000 band, with volatility easing and few near-term catalysts to drive a decisive move. Glassnode notes early signs of spot-market accumulation, while derivatives positioning looks largely reset and more balanced. Still, the market lacks the conviction typically seen ahead of a sustained breakout.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60,000 and $70,000.
- URPD data shows heavy overhead supply between $80,000 and $126,000. Clearing that cluster may require either a deeper price discount or a lengthy redistribution period.
- Total Supply in Loss is near 8.4 million BTC, echoing the market structure seen in Q2 2022. In that episode, about 3 million BTC needed to change hands before conditions normalized around the cycle midpoint.
- Long-term holder realized losses have risen steadily since November 2025 to roughly $200 million per day, signaling active capitulation. A drop below $25 million per day would be a key threshold historically associated with bottom formation.
- Coinbase spot cumulative volume differential has turned slightly positive, suggesting spot buyers are beginning to absorb selling pressure, though demand remains weaker than typical durable-low conditions.
- Corporate treasury flows have narrowed: Marathon has distributed about 15,000 BTC, while Strategy remains the only institution consistently making large-scale purchases.
- Perpetual futures directional premium has compressed to near neutral, slightly below zero, reflecting reduced long leverage and cooling speculation. Open interest looks less momentum-driven as longs close and shorts reappear.
- Options markets are pricing a calmer near-term regime: implied volatility has softened across the curve, skew is tilting down again but remains well below levels linked to aggressive hedging demand.
- Gamma positioning has moved back into a market-supportive state after the recent negative-gamma phase, suggesting market-maker short-term positioning has stabilized.
On-chain: loss supply remains a structural overhang
With price consolidating between $60,000 and $70,000, Glassnode focuses on the supply bought above $80,000 that now sits in unrealized loss. That cohort has endured more than six months of drawdown and faces a two-way behavioral outcome: sell into rallies to limit losses, or capitulate if declines deepen.
URPD highlights a dense concentration of coins acquired between $80,000 and $126,000. Resolving that overhang likely requires either a meaningful discount that attracts new demand or a prolonged transfer of coins from weaker hands to higher-conviction holders.
To quantify the scale, Glassnode uses Total Supply in Loss, which measures circulating BTC last moved at prices above spot. Smoothed with a 30-day simple moving average, it sits around 8.4 million BTC, implying roughly 8–9 million coins have remained underwater over the past month. The size of that figure, combined with spot hovering near the cycle midline, resembles Q2 2022 dynamics.
In 2022, the market only reclaimed the cycle midline decisively after Total Supply in Loss fell from above 8 million BTC to roughly 5 million BTC. That suggests around 3 million BTC had to be redistributed before market conditions improved.
Tracking redistribution: capitulation still active
The Long-Term Holder Realized Loss metric captures realized losses from investors holding for more than six months who are selling below cost. Glassnode says the 30-day average has climbed steadily since November 2025 and is now about $200 million per day, confirming active long-term holder capitulation.
While that process is part of bear-market cleanup, it has not historically been sufficient on its own to signal a durable turn. A more convincing sign would be a cooldown below $25 million per day, consistent with prior bottoming phases.
Off-chain: spot demand improves, but remains tentative
Coinbase spot volume dynamics show early stabilization. The 30-day moving average of Coinbase spot volume differential has flipped slightly positive after an extended negative stretch in January and early February, when selling pressure dominated. The shift suggests buyers are beginning to absorb available supply as prices stabilize.
Glassnode cautions the positive spread remains modest, indicating tentative demand rather than strong conviction. Historically, sustained recoveries have required persistent positive spot inflows rather than brief buying bursts.
Corporate treasuries: participation narrows
Treasury activity has become more selective. Broad-based corporate accumulation has weakened in recent months, replaced by uneven flows. Marathon’s distribution of about 15,000 BTC stands out as a clear example of a corporate treasury reducing exposure.
Strategy, by contrast, remains the only consistent large-scale buyer, continuing regular purchases while other companies participate more sporadically. That shift suggests corporate demand is now less diversified and more dependent on a single dominant participant, making it a less reliable pillar of support than earlier in the cycle.
Derivatives: leverage reset and sentiment cools
Perpetual futures directional premium has continued to compress, with the 30-day sum approaching neutral and slightly below zero. Glassnode interprets this as a clear cooling from prior bullish conditions: long-biased speculative leverage is being unwound and short interest is returning.
The result is a more balanced but more cautious perpetual market structure, a pattern often seen during consolidation after extended directional moves.
Options: volatility expectations soften, downside bias persists
Following an options open-interest reset, implied volatility has moved lower across the term structure versus last week, led by the front end. At-the-money implied volatility is around 51% for one week and 49% for three months, with other tenors tightly clustered in between; the six-month tenor is about 49.8%. The compressed curve points to reduced near-term demand for volatility exposure.
Skew signals rebuilding downside protection. A higher 25-delta skew (puts minus calls) reflects greater demand for hedges. Last week, the 1-week skew hit a monthly high of 22.7% before retracing, showing sensitivity to immediate price action. Longer-dated skews stayed elevated at 17.4% for one month and 13.2% for six months, indicating continued appetite for medium- and long-horizon protection.
Gamma positioning and a fragile liquidity backdrop
Glassnode highlights negative gamma building below spot, spanning roughly $68,000 down to above $50,000. That suggests meaningful put demand under current levels, positioning market makers on the other side. In a negative-gamma environment, hedging can amplify downside moves as dealers sell into weakness.
With liquidity still described as thin following the March 27 contract expiration, the structure looks fragile. A move into that zone could intensify hedging flows and accelerate downside, potentially revisiting $60,000, the low from the February 5 selloff.
Implied vs. realized volatility: risk is being priced despite calm tape
Another destabilizing feature is implied volatility staying above realized volatility. On the front end, 1-week realized volatility is around 38% while 1-week implied volatility is near 49%, an 11-percentage-point gap that has persisted for more than three weeks. Glassnode views this as a sign participants are still paying for protection even as price action remains muted, reflecting low confidence.
When implied exceeds realized and gamma is negative, relatively modest selling can produce outsized price swings because the market may have limited capacity to absorb flows coming off a compressed pricing base.
Bottom line
Bitcoin remains locked in a $60,000–$70,000 range. The market is showing early stabilization signals, but not enough momentum for a clear breakout. On-chain data still points to an ongoing recovery and redistribution phase: underwater supply remains large and long-term holder capitulation has not fully cooled.
Spot demand is improving at the margin, suggesting sellers no longer fully control the tape. Off-chain conditions look more balanced as leverage resets, implied volatility softens, and market-maker positioning stabilizes. Even so, clearer conviction and a more meaningful pickup in spot demand may be needed before the overhead supply above $80,000 begins to clear and rangebound trading gives way to a sustained trend.