According to the analysis, as of Wednesday Ether entered the breakdown phase of an inverse cup‑and‑handle, putting a February move toward $1,665–$1,725 in play. Chartswatcher reports an 82% hit rate for this setup’s downside targets, while Glassnode’s MVRV bands highlight support near $1,725, implying risk of a print below $2,000.

As of January, estimated electricity and all-in production costs to mine one BTC are about $59,450 and $74,300, while Bitcoin traded near $82,500 on Friday. A recent drop in hash rate and a reported miner pullback point to downside toward that cost band, though prior cycles have seen rebounds toward an energy-value fair price around $120,950.

In January 2026, the BTC/XAU ratio dropped beneath its long-term Power Law band and the 200-2W EMA level that had previously aligned with Bitcoin’s major dollar-denominated lows. This move came as gold rallied beyond $5,000 and large banks projected further gains toward $6,000 by year-end, while some analysts warned Bitcoin could fall under $50,000 after peaking near $126,200 in October 2025. A potential reversal in gold’s uptrend later in 2026 could ease pressure on BTC/XAU and reopen the path to price targets around $140,000.

Bitcoin has previously fallen about 30% from local highs during Japanese yen intervention periods before rebounding by more than 100%, a pattern some market participants are watching as talk of renewed JPY action grows. Analysts warn BTC could slide toward the $65,000–$70,000 zone if this fractal repeats, while onchain indicators such as NUPL and delta growth rate still point to an incomplete bottoming process.

The gap between long- and short-dated US government bond yields has reached its widest level since 2021, raising concerns about Bitcoin's performance heading into 2026. Strategists warn that Japan's record 30-year yield and gold's recent strength, alongside higher long-term Treasury rates, could weigh on high-beta assets such as BTC around key price levels.

According to on-chain analyst Darkfrost, XRP funding rates on Binance have stayed mostly negative in recent months, echoing conditions that preceded rebounds of about 50% in August–September 2024 and around 100% in April–July 2025. Bears are eyeing a drop toward the 200-week EMA near $1.40 if XRP cannot hold the $1.80–$2.00 support band and reclaim the 50-week EMA at $2.22.

US-based Bitcoin selling intensified as the 30-day Coinbase Premium Gap fell to around −63.85, a one-year low, signaling pressure on BTC's price. A rising wedge on the daily chart raises the odds of a break below $90,000, with $80,000–$78,000 in focus if support fails.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke above a multi‑week pattern and retested about $95,000, putting a measured objective near $107,000 in play by February. Long‑dormant holder distribution has slowed and coins are moving off exchanges, tightening supply, while a potential 20‑/50‑day EMA bull cross and a negative correlation to gold add to the bullish case.

Bitcoin fell to its deepest historical discount against gold on Friday in 2026, as the BTC/XAU Z-score dropped below minus 2 standard deviations. This extreme undervaluation level has previously coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms, including a roughly 150% price rally after a similar signal in late 2022, and has some analysts expecting BTC to strongly outperform gold if past patterns repeat.